Airlines fear being stranded in NZ as global jet fuel supply tightens
Tuesday, 24 March 2026
Tourism Minister Louise Upston has asked officials to monitor international travel closely as foreign airlines warn they may slash long‑haul flights to New Zealand if jet fuel supplies tighten, with industry leaders seeking urgent assurances from the Government.
Board of Airline Representatives chief executive Cath O’Brien says if carriers fear they may not be able to refuel for the return journey they will not make the flight to New Zealand.
The shortage has been caused by the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key gateway for oil supply to refineries.
“Airlines are expressing concern about potential fuel shortages in New Zealand and how that will affect their services,” she said, and international carriers were looking for assurances about potential fuel allocations.
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“They have asked what the nature of that allocation might be, when it might start, who it might apply to and how, that sort of thing, none of which I have answers for just yet.”
Upston on Tuesday said she had not had any indications that airlines were reducing the number of flights coming to New Zealand to conserve fuel.
'I have asked officials to monitor it closely and I want to know if there's any lead indicators that there is a change of behaviour.'
She said there had been no indication that tourists would stop travelling at all as a result of the Iran conflict.
But airlines are looking ahead and drawing up network plans for when jet fuel might not be available at some airports.
New Zealand was connected to the rest of the world with “long, skinny routes” from the United States, Asia or the Middle East. The huge distances meant aircraft could only carry enough fuel for the journey here, and must refill their tanks for the return trip.
Airlines flying shorter routes to Australia and South Pacific destinations could make the return trip without needing to refuel.
O’Brien said it was possible that long-haul carriers could cut their schedules to New Zealand to 80% which would reduce the number of seats and cargo capacity.
“Nobody wants to do this. But we will have to manage a scarce resource,” she said.
O’Brien said it was hypothetically possible that fuel shipments would be turned away from New Zealand and was permitted within the fuel suppliers’ contracts.
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment reported there was 21.4 days of jet fuel in the country as at March 18 and another 23.3 days of supply en route. New Zealand’s global obligations are that we must carry 24 days’ cover of jet fuel.
O’Brien also said the supply of Brent crude, from which jet fuel was refined, could become constrained leading to possible global scarcity.
Most of New Zealand’s jet fuel came from Korea and Singapore and used oil from the Middle East to make the fuel. But the country would look for other supply options to maintain production, she said.
“We have been in close conversation with government agencies about possible next steps.”
In January the Government increased the amount of jet fuel required to be held onshore to at least 24 days, which has left airlines in a much better position than they might otherwise have been, O’Brien said.
But foreign long-haul airlines would stop flying to New Zealand if there was a risk of no fuel supply, she said. In the past when there had been fuel allocation some long-haul services made an extra fuel stop in Australia or the Pacific depending on where they were flying from.
But that might not be possible when those airports were dealing with supply restrictions as well.
Australia and the Pacific also relied on ships to deliver fuel. “So we have to also consider, not just for ourselves, but also what our short haul markets are able to supply.”
United States carriers were coming to the end of their seasonal services to New Zealand, as well as some of the Chinese carriers, which could reduce some pressure on fuel demand, she said.
The war has constrained services from Emirates which has more than halved its flights to Auckland from seven to three a day, while fellow Gulf carrier Qatar has not been able to resume services due to the war.
That would reduce demand for jet fuel in New Zealand, she said.
The potential for fuel shortages was not entirely new territory. In 2017 a digger punctured the pipeline that delivered jet fuel to Auckland Airport from Marsden Point cancelling more than 100 flights, and in 2023 a contaminated shipment of jet fuel led to rationing of fuel ahead of the peak summer travel season.