NZ business confidence shaken: Spurs’ next manager could learn from PM when it comes to pep talk

Wednesday, 1 April 2026

ANALYSIS Business confidence surveys can lead people down some curious paths.

Less than three weeks ago, after the bombs started dropping in the Middle East, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon appeared to confuse even some of his own faithful by posting enthusiastically in social media that business confidence was “at the highest level in over a decade”.

The basis for that remark appeared to be a finding from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research in January that a net 39% of firms expected an improvement in general economic conditions over the following year.

That was a higher proportion than at any time in the previous 12 years.

Read more:

• Iran war: Conflict fallout hits NZ economy - and exposes cracks in Government’s response

• Construction sector starting to feel economic headwinds of Iran war

• Iran war: The key debate that will shape New Zealand’s fuel response

ANZ reported a net 59.2% of firms it polled in February expected economic conditions to improve over the following six months.

So, yes, confidence was very high in a sense, but confidence in what exactly?

Confidence that better times were ahead, not necessarily that those times were likely to be particularly good.

Tottenham Hotspur fans might get the difference.

Having secured just one point from a possible 21 in their last seven Premier League football matches, confidence that their form will improve in the next seven games is probably near a record high.

Does that mean they are expecting fantastic results or that the team will avoid relegation? Well, maybe not.

The latest business confidence results from ANZ aren’t too hard to read, but there is a potential distraction.

A net 33% of firms it polled in March reported they were expecting economic conditions to improve in the following six months.

But the bulk of those responses can be completely ignored as they were collected at the start of the month, a day after the conflict in the Middle East erupted when the potential global implications had yet to dawn.

It was the response from the third of firms that filled in the survey after an email reminder on March 23 that actually matter.

Of those responding late in the month, a net 23% were expecting economic conditions to worsen over the next six months.

In a blow for the long-suffering unemployed, slightly more firms were expecting to reduce staff numbers than take on new workers.

Investment intentions had stagnated and, strangely, many more firms were reporting their activity over the past 12 months had fallen, when compared to firms that responded earlier in the month.

That suggests business owners are even retrospectively looking back over the last year with a darker lens.

It’s a huge turnaround, but sadly perhaps not as huge as it could be given the uncertain outlook.

Meanwhile, Spurs will travel to mid-table Sunderland on Sunday.

They are in search of a new manager, who could perhaps do worse than consult Luxon for advice if searching for a positive spin to put on their season so far.