ANZ now expects three hikes to Official Cash Rate this year
Monday, 13 April 2026
The country’s largest bank is now forecasting the Reserve Bank will hike the Official Cash Rate three times this year, taking the rate to 3% by the end of October.
ANZ had previously only tipped one rate hike this side of Christmas, but is now predicting the Reserve Bank will increase the OCR at its consecutive meetings in July, August and October.
The better news for borrowers is that the bank believes there could be a pause after that and is not predicting the timing of any need for further hikes.
Previously it had been forecasting the OCR would rise to 3.5% next year.
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Chief economist Sharon Zollner said it was forecasting “more now, less later”, with the central bank choosing to load rate rises in a bid to contain inflation.
It is understood the economic scenarios the Treasury has presented to Finance Minister Nicola Willis in the wake of the conflict in Iran include one pessimistic outlook that would see inflation rise to about 7.5%.
ANZ said rate rises by the Reserve Bank could be “very powerful”, because economic sentiment was now so fragile.
ANZ’s thinking had been influenced by the Reserve Bank’s talk in its monetary policy review last week that it was willing to act decisively to keep inflation at the 2% mid-point of its target band in the medium term and the central bank’s subsequent commentary, Zollner told The Post.
“They chose to finish on a very stern tone,” she said.