Nervous farmers asked not to panic buy fertiliser as price, supply fears intensify

Wednesday, 15 April 2026

Nervous farmers are being asked not to stockpile fertiliser as US President Donald Trump’s ongoing war on Iran raises fears of further price rises, and even the possibility of shortages.

Fertiliser co-operative Ravensdown has asked farmers to “order as they normally would at this time of year” after some asked for amounts that indicated they were stockpiling.

The co-operative said it was actively assessing orders against buyers’ historical “normal” buying patterns, but chief executive Mike Whitty was not available to explain what action Ravensdown took when it believed a farmer was stockpiling.

Asking people not to panic buy recalled pleas to households during the early days of the Covid pandemic when there was a rush on toilet paper, one fertiliser industry source said.

Read More:

• NZ farmers brace for potential fertiliser shortage and spike in prices amid Iran war

• Iran war: Academic warns of ‘system-wide supply shock’ as Hormuz crisis deepens

• How a US blockade near the Strait of Hormuz could work and the impact ahead for the global economy

Trump’s war in Iran is slowing the world economy through disruption of oil shipments leading to a spike in prices, including for fertiliser. Middle Eastern countries, Iran included, were big manufacturers of some types of fertiliser, and the oil necessary to make and ship them.

Canterbury arable farmer David Birkett said nitrate-based fertiliser prices were up 10% since the start of the war, while increases for phosphate-based fertilisers had risen in price by a smaller amount.

But farmers expected further rises, said Birkett, who is Federated Farmers’ arable group chairperson.

They were looking nervously at urea prices in Australia, which were higher than those being charged in New Zealand, which produces a substantial amount of urea for local use.

Some nitrate fertilisers were now selling for A$1600-a-tonne in Australia, which is just over NZ$1900.

Similiar fertilisers were selling in New Zealand for NZ$1100-a-tonne, Birkett said.

“That gives us an indication of where we are going to go,” he said.

In its latest fertiliser update for farmers, fertiliser co-operative Ballance said it had increased its prices, but had not yet passed on the full impact of the increases resulting from both domestic supply chain costs and the escalation in fertiliser commodity prices being seen across the globe.

Stefan Vogel, general manager of RaboResearch for Australia and New Zealand, said he would expect New Zealand fertiliser prices to converge with global prices, which had doubled for some fertilisers.

About 30% of globally traded fertiliser was “behind the Strait of Hormuz”, Vogel said.

However, only one in four tonnes of fertiliser produced was globally traded, the remainder being produced locally, and sold within the countries it was made in.

The global shortage was causing some producing countries like China and Turkey to limit exports to ensure prices remained lower for local farmers.

Ballance and Ravensdown are not warning of shortages of fertiliser for the autumn season.

When on-farm input prices rise, it feeds through eventually into food prices as farmers seek to pass on the increases.

But it can be an uncomfortable transition for some farmers, especially arable farmers, who often have contracts with buyers that did not allow them to increase prices when fuel prices went up sharply.

“A lot of farmers simply can’t absorb it,” Birkett said.

All around the world conversations were going on about what future contracts would look like, but Birkett said there were no mechanisms in many existing contracts to “reopen” them.

In its latest market update, Ballance said it was working on sourcing supply for multiple regions, had built in longer lead times, and was securing “contingency volumes” for selected products.

However, it gave no assurances on price, saying: “Most of our products are subject to price at time of shipment.”

Ballance also reported on its capability to produce urea here.

“The uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East highlights how critical local resilience is for New Zealand,” it said. “Ballance's Kapuni gas-to-urea plant manufactures approximately one third of New Zealand’s urea annually.”

But the plant relied on local gas supply to operate, and short-term supply had been secured through to the end of June this year.