Daily Dispatch: Markets’ winning streak faces reality check as Hormuz stays shut
Monday, 20 April 2026
Market Summary
US markets, which spiked on Friday after the Strait of Hormuz was said to have been opened, will be starting this week in a no doubt different frame of mind given events over the weekend, when it appeared to be closed again.
On Friday evening, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi wrote, “the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open” for the purported 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Oil prices plummeted on the news, Brent Crude falling to just over US$90 a barrel. But come Saturday morning US time, Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) announced it was reimposing 'strict control' over the waterway in response to the US’ continued blockade of Iranian ports.
But on Friday evening in the US, hopes were buoyant, and so were indices - the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, crossing the 7,100 point threshold for the first time ever. The Nasdaq rose 1.52% for a 13th consecutive positive day and its longest positive streak since 1992 and the Dow Jones advanced 1.79%.
Read more:
NZ inflation preview: March quarter dips, but Iran war will fuel a sharp rise in June
Why the labour market matters just as much as the oil shock right now
The pan-European Stoxx 600 also soared on news Hormuz was open, closing up 1.6%, with travel and leisure stocks ending the day almost 5% higher.
Whether the winning streak this week continues is yet to be seen, now that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed despite Iran’s declaration it is open. Peace talks in Pakistan between US and Iran are expected to continue today.
Asian markets mainly fell on Friday, with a more cautious outlook. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped by 1.75%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.55%, Mainland China’s CSI300 index traded 0.17% lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.01%. Only India’s Nifty 50 bucked the trend, closing up 0.34%.
Back here, the S&P/NZX 50 Index dropped 1.23%, with investors focused on the economic picture domestically - and the continued spectre of interest rate hikes. Energy shares also fell after the rebalancing of the S&P Global Clean Energy Index to add many more companies, which saw New Zealand companies’ weightings reduced and a subsequent sell-off in these shares.
Business news on Friday included more on the fuel crisis - including from Fletcher Building, which said it was facing some near-term risks due to the war in the Middle East. Despite this, Forsyth Barr upgraded the stock to “outperform”. Shares in the company dropped 3.04%.
Small businesses are also being affected, while aviation received a reality check in the day - both our own airline sector and Europe’s. Mainfreight chief executive Don Braid expressed frustration at KiwiRail not offering more services in the diesel crunch. There was speculation that the banks might be the subject of a new levy in May’s Budget.
On the main board, Cooks Coffee dropped 13.73% on some trade in the stock. TruScreen ticked back 5.88%, Taiko Critical Minerals fell 5.13%, Air New Zealand lost 4.35%, and Summerset fell 4.04%.
Gainers included New Zealand King Salmon, which was up 20% on upgraded earnings guidance - projected pre-tax earnings in the current financial year were now expected to be in the range of $10 million to $18m, rather than the previously projected range of between a $3m loss to a $3m profit. Black Pearl Group gained 9.04%, Chatham Rock Phosphate was up 8%, Radius Residential advanced 6.10% and Carbon Fund Units rose 4.95% on new data showing a significant increase in emissions offset usage.
In Sydney on Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 ticked down 0.14%. Decliners in the day included homewares brand Temple & Webster Group, which dropped 6.46% on a Citi downgrade of its stock, while gold play Catalyst Metals fell 5.02% after settling a legal dispute.
While we slept
President Donald Trump says talks between the US and Iran will resume in Pakistan on Monday. US negotiators headed by Vice President JD Vance are heading to Pakistan for the next round of peace talks. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, confirmed peace talks with the US were continuing, but warned Iranian forces remained ready for a resumption of fighting. He also reiterated Iran’s intention to restrict shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
FBI Director Kash Patel has vowed to sue The Atlantic over an article claiming he abuses alcohol. In response he said he would be bringing a lawsuit for defamation on Monday, after the magazine published an article citing more than two-dozen sources that made claims about his behaviour, some of which said he frequently drinks to the point of obvious intoxication, and his security detail has at times struggled to wake him due to intoxication.
What’s up today
In today’s The Post, Tom Pullar-Strecker writes inflation is expected to dip or track sideways before a sharp rise.
Miriam Bell reports Waiheke Charitable Trust acts to support workers hit by rising fuel costs, and Aimee Shaw profiles NV Wines for this week’s Small Business Project.
Rob Stock reports it is Groundhog Day at Disputes Tribunal over car park managers’ misleading claims, and how the safety promises after Pike River evaporated.
In case you missed it over the weekend, Aimee Shaw reports Frances Valintine’s thoughts on the risk of AI knowledge gap, and Miriam Bell on why it is a good time to pick up a bach.