The silver renaissance: Why analysts are backing listed retirement stocks in 2026
Thursday, 30 April 2026
Ryman Healthcare and its fellow NZX-listed retirement village operators will likely do better than the market thinks this year and in coming years, even if a recession and Middle East war-exacerbated construction woes intensify, analysts say.
Once a cash cow for investors, in recent years New Zealand’s three listed retirement village operators have faced challenges stemming from tough economic conditions and the housing market downturn.
But the country is facing a looming shortfall of retirement units at a time the population is ageing rapidly, and that has left Ryman, Summerset Group and Oceania Healthcare well-placed for the future.
Now, Forsyth Barr analyst Will Twiss has upgraded the firm’s rating for Ryman to outperform from neutral, while suggesting an economic downturn could benefit existing retirement village operators.
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In a recent report, Twiss said the market had aggressively de-rated the aged care sector based on concerns about a softer domestic economy, and Ryman’s share price was down 29% in the year to date.
Summerset and Oceania’s share prices had also fallen over the year.
That de-rating has occurred despite Ryman and Summerset reporting limited impact so far from the conflict in the Middle East.
“While we acknowledge that uncertainty is elevated, Ryman’s share price now incorporates unwarranted pessimism in our view,” he said.
A recovery in the company’s unit prices was unlikely until 2028, but he did expect it to more than triple annuity earnings between 2026 and 2029.
“We believe the risk-reward is attractive at current levels, particularly with our confidence growing that Ryman has reached an inflection point in earnings and free cash flow generation.”
Twiss said critically, the company’s earnings trajectory was not contingent on a significant recovery in the housing market.
That was because its growth over the next three years was underpinned by growing demand for aged care, changes to its village pricing structure, a well-advanced cost-out programme and lower interest costs.
There were risks to Ryman due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, but the company was better positioned for a potential downturn than was being priced in by the market, he said.
“Even before the conflict in the Middle East, new demand for retirement village units and care beds in New Zealand and Australia was likely to significantly outstrip future supply.
“A prolonged conflict will likely exacerbate this imbalance, with rising construction costs and weaker demand negatively impacting the feasibility of new projects.
“In this scenario, we see Ryman - and the rest of the listed sector - as a medium-term beneficiary, with scarcity likely to enable existing asset owners to improve returns.”
Last week Ryman ticked off a milestone with the official opening of its new flagship retirement village in Christchurch, the Kevin Hickman Village.
In the three months to the end of March, Ryman’s sales were up 10% on the previous comparative period.
Insulation controversy
Another of the listed operators, Summerset, hosted its annual general meeting last week, and chair Mark Verbiest told shareholders the company was in many respects a relatively young growth company.
A meaningful portion of the company’s portfolio was either still in development, or early in its economic life, and that affected the cash profile of the business, he said.
“Cashflows mature and strengthen as villages move from build into established operations…as more of our portfolio enters that phase, we expect to see a growing contribution of cash flow from existing operations.”
The company had delivered a strong operating performance over the 2025 financial year, despite a sluggish economy and property market, he said.
Summerset’s sales over the first quarter of the 2026 year were up on the same period the previous year, and Forsyth Barr gave it an “outperform” rating earlier this year.
But that buoyant performance has also brought the company some controversy. The Taxpayers’ Union recently claimed the company had used $161,985 of taxpayer funding to subsidise insulation upgrades in its Wanganui and Havelock North retirement villages.
The funding was from the Warmer Kiwi Homes programme, with payments made to contractors installing insulation in licence-to-occupy units within the villages, the group said.
Summerset head of communications Logan Mudge said some residents at the villages in question had found out they met the eligibility criteria for the scheme, and applied for the funding for their homes.
“This was completely driven by the residents, and while we were supportive of them investigating their entitlements, we didn’t seek out this funding on their behalf.”
While Summerset’s newer villages were fully insulated to modern build codes, some of the older villages such as Havelock North and Whanganui were built to meet requirements of the time, he said.
Both the existing residents and future residents would benefit from the insulation upgrades, he added.
EECA administers the Warmer Kiwi Homes programme. EECA general manager delivery and partnerships Richard Briggs said the programme funded eligible residents with a “right to occupy”, not businesses.
“Retirement village residents are often on fixed incomes and meet eligibility criteria, just like any other household. Excluding residents based on this ownership structure would leave some older people worse off.”
New development
Meanwhile, in an NZX announcement in March the third listed operator, Oceania, reported it expected to complete the sale of six of its villages by the end of the month, and would position the company well for the 2027 financial year.
The sales, which would total about $50 million, were part of the company’s strategy to modernise its portfolio and focus on profitable integrated villages with a mix of both aged care and retirement units, it said.
Oceania opened the first stage of a new $54 million mixed unit and care suite village in Auckland’s Pukekohe in February, and in its most recent financial results, for the six months to September, it reported a noticeable pick-up in its sales.