Iran war: Rod Duke on Briscoe Group navigating Middle East conflict pressures, and why he’s optimistic it will end soon
Monday, 4 May 2026
Veteran business leader and retailer Rod Duke is calm in the face of what is increasingly uncertain and globally unstable times.
The managing director and biggest shareholder of Briscoe Group, which operates just under 100 stores across the Briscoes and Rebel Sport brands, believes the US and Iran conflict will come to an end within a matter of weeks, not months.
Duke said the most disruptive impact so far had been fuel supply and the knock-on effect of rising prices, weighing on the consumer appetite to spend.
So far there had been no material adverse impacts on Briscoe Group, Duke said, but he expected increased costs were just around the corner.
“We haven't seen the immediate effects as of today, but there's plenty that are going to come on tomorrow.”
Duke said higher petrol prices would inevitably push up the cost of plastic wraps, packaging, home deliveries and transport, with bunkering charges and fuel surcharges on freight all flowing through to consumers. Those costs, he said, were passed on and ultimately added to inflation.
He predicted those costs would be passed on pretty quickly, within the month, making people even more reluctant to spend.
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“Most of us are already taking relatively short margin compared to the normal margin we'd operate on,” he said. “If you sell LG TVs or Samsung or Apple phones [for example], the price has got to go up.”
Duke said Briscoe Group buyers currently in the Far East - due back at the weekend - were likely to report further cost increases on certain products, including packaging.
The NZX-listed company increased its sales by 1.37% to $180.8 million in its first quarter of trading to April 26.
Sales in its homeware division increased almost 2% to $105.7m, while sporting goods sales rose by 0.53% to $75.1m.
Duke is optimistic there will be minimal long-term impacts on business stemming from the current stalemate in the Middle East - but that depended on how long US President Donald Trump’s war continued, he said.
He said that if the conflict continued and jeopardised global fuel supplies — particularly in this part of the world — it would add to inflation, make the Reserve Bank nervous, and leave customers less willing to spend.
Duke said that with Trump facing midterm elections, it was in the US President’s political interests to resolve the conflict sooner rather than later — which he believed meant it was likely to end soon.
“This war in the United States is extremely unpopular and [deemed] unnecessary. If he continues this, he is highly likely to lose control of the House and the Senate at the same time, which means in his last period, he's a lame duck and can't do anything.
“I think the only way to save it is for him to pretend that he won the war, [play up] what a hero I am, ‘I brought all the troops home. I'm going to stop spending a billion dollars a day on this war, and now I'm going to focus on home’, then he's probably got some chance of saving the seats he must win to retain power of both houses.
“It makes political sense for him to do that. Whether or not he does, it remains to be seen.”
The US war on Iran, which in recent weeks has escalated into a blockade of Iranian ports, began on February 28. The US has said it will only end the blockade when Iran agrees to a nuclear deal, Iran has said it will only open the Hormuz Strait when the US blockade ends.
Briscoe last week moved into a new multi-million-dollar Drury distribution centre, packed with robotics and automated capabilities designed to reduce costs and streamline packaging and processes.
Duke said the timing was helpful, given rising costs elsewhere.
“It will mean more efficiencies, therefore more sales and lower costs.”
Duke believed that by September or October businesses would be faced with “quite a different cost base” if the conflict continued for an extended period.
He said the biggest risk would be a return of inflation, warning that any restriction or rise in fuel costs would feed quickly into inflation figures. That, he said, would leave the Reserve Bank with little choice but to review interest rates — and if inflation moved outside its target band, prices across the board, including housing interest rates, would rise, which he described as a scenario that would be bad for the country.
But Duke believes the conflict is a short-term issue, and as soon as the Strait opens, fuel supply and prices would ease and temporary increased costs, levies and bunkering charges applied would fall away.
Briscoe Group outlook
Despite the increased risk of inflation edging up and further disruptions to business from the conflict, Duke said the Briscoe board remained confident in the strength of its brands and the business positioned to grow sales and perform well over the medium term.
“Should geopolitical tensions continue to ease over coming months, we are cautiously optimistic the recovery which was beginning to emerge as we commenced this current financial year could resume, supporting a return toward a more favourable retail environment through the second half of the year. ”