Maintaining compliance with fuel rationing could prove even harder than it seems
Tuesday, 12 May 2026
OPINION: Z Energy has “acknowledged” the Government’s proposals on how it would ration fuel in a Level 4 shortage, while making clear there would be complexities to work through.
The fundamentals of the plan would be to ration fuel for the general public, while requiring other users — “critical” services aside — to come up with different plans to reduce their fuel use depending on their position in the hierarchy.
The snag is that there appears no easy way to check the public complied with any rules.
Families often own multiple cars, multiple family members may drive any car, and people usually have several ways to pay for fuel, including credit cards, eftpos and cash.
Read more:
Fuel plan shows how rationing would roll out — if ever needed
Iran War: Coupons for petrol, bans on containers - how fuel-rationed NZ might look
Oil under pressure: The numbers behind the warnings and reassurances
Each of those complications makes rationing difficult to design and enforce.
On top of that, there are five petrol importers, eight wholesalers and 20 retail brands, each of which would need to share information for rationing to be effective.
Many people have the option of filling up at one of a few different chains.
If petrol companies each maintained a database they could share and that recorded every petrol sale against a licence plate, then monitoring compliance with any restrictions might be easier.
But it is understood they don’t and even that wouldn’t solve every problem.
If rationing was based on individuals’ fuel use, rather than vehicles, there might need to be some way of recording fuel purchases against people’s driving licences.
“We support the intent of having a clear framework in place and given the complexity, there will be operational details to be worked through to ensure the approach is practical and effective in real-world conditions,” a Z spokesperson said.
“We will continue to work closely with officials to support the development of these settings.”
Material released by Finance Minister Nicola Willis makes clear any rationing regime would be “high trust”.
“Experience shows us that most people will do the right thing and only a few will not comply.”
But the evidence on that would appear mixed.
The Ministry for Culture and Heritage recalls “carless days” introduced in 1979 in response to the Opec fuel shock were generally regarded as a failure that did little to reduce consumption.
“A black market in exemption stickers emerged, as did forgeries, making enforcement difficult. Households able to afford to run two cars simply chose different carless days for each vehicle,” it recalls.
Covid-era restrictions and the gradual collapse of the “mandatory” census show how voluntary compliance can erode over time, if there aren’t sanctions attached that are perceived to be effective.
Once people see or hear of others breaking the rules without consequence, they can quickly conclude non-compliance is widespread.
It’s a short jump, from there, to conclude they would simply be a mug to follow the rules — to fill out the census without an inducement such as a free Warriors ticket, for example.
Unfortunately, it is human nature to be very alert to perceived personal disadvantage and to find ways to justify breaking rules that we might want to break.
The very worst case scenario with Level 4 fuel restrictions would be if the likes of food distributors stuck to the rules — which corporates tend to do — while voluntary compliance by the general public broke down.
That might see restrictions backfire by channelling fuel consumption away from priority users; the exact opposite of what would be intended.
Willis was clear there would not be police enforcement. “It's not practical for the New Zealand government to have a fleet of police out there policing every fuel transaction of the pump. That's just not achievable or plausible.”
And the minister sees less than a 10% chance of Level 4 restrictions being imposed and there appears to be time for the many conversations that will need to take place about how all this might (or might not) work.