If Elon Musk can lose his crown, are our billionaires next?

Sunday, 28 June 2026

ANALYSIS: He’s still the richest man in the world, but Elon Musk has, sadly for him, slipped below the level of a trillionaire in recent days. A severe tech sell-off that’s been happening globally has wiped billions off his holdings in SpaceX and Tesla, taking a substantial bite at his personal wealth.

Specifically, Musk’s 42% holding of SpaceX accounts for nearly 80% of his total net worth. Great when the shares, which debuted at US$135 a piece, hit $225.64 on June 16: it pushed Musk’s wealth into the stratosphere. But prices returned back through the tropopause (the barrier between the earth and the stratosphere) when the stock started falling. SpaceX shares have since lost 30% in value, erasing about $363 billion from his personal wealth in a matter of days.

Musk’s 12% stake in Tesla slumped as well - dropping 9.7% over the course of June - and he lost about $15.43 billion on top of the SpaceX twatting.

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These events got us to thinking about the wealth of New Zealand billionaires (no trillionaires yet) and how secure their personal wealth is - and what kind of risks exist in the businesses they own that could potentially erase some of that wealth.

A look at the issue suggests holding wealth in private companies protects the wealthy from the volatility of public markets (as Musk has suffered), but also brings with it the remote risk of catastrophic failure. However, given most portfolios of the uber rich are well diversified, such a failure may not be enough to knock them substantially off course.

Top of the list of those to consider are the Mowbray brothers, Nick and Mat, who topped this year’s NBR Rich List. The assessment of their personal wealth comes from the valuation of Zuru, which is worth $20 billion, and which the brothers completely, privately own. Cash flowing into the business is so voluminous, they’ve never had to take outside capital to grow.

Anything that would imperil the functioning of the business - really, it is three businesses - fast-moving consumer goods Zuru Edge, modular home builder Zuru Tech, and Zuru Toys - would reduce the company’s valuation and hence the Mowbrays’ personal wealth. For example, Zuru Tech has been a big investment of capital, including the spending of $100 million purchasing 16 wildfire-damaged beachfront plots in California to pilot their prefab homes. Any kind of regulatory pushback or failure of the tech that underlies Zuru Tech would wipe value from the company. But more dangerous (and possible) for the Hong Kong-based business would be any sort of geopolitical trade war involving China.

There’s also risk associated with significant retail supply chain disruptions, although the latter is less likely, given Zuru was able to quite nimbly mitigate the enormous shipping chaos seen during Covid.

The brothers say they would never sell or list the business. One could see a rival legacy toy maker offering huge bucks for the toy part of it, with a premium likely paid to eliminate a disruptive competitor, but that would only pump Mowbray wealth higher.

Graeme Hart, who is second with a personal wealth of $14.1b according to the NBR, is at the mercy of a fickle building supplies market in New Zealand and Australia through his full ownership or Carter Holt Harvey. But even if the company’s value has dropped from an estimated A$1bback in 2022, Hart’s majority ownership of Nasdaq-listed, US-based Reynolds Consumer Products, is much bigger in value to him. Worth US$4b, the stock is a reliable dividend generator and relies on a domestic US manufacturing footprint, making it largely shockproof to global goings-on. A slight risk is assumed from price volatility in the raw commodity market at present, but likely neither the wealth tied up in this or Hart’s other packaging and additional concerns would be great enough to downgrade him under the billion dollar personal wealth mark.

Sir Peter Beck is different - his wealth is almost entirely tied up in his roughly 10.5% stake in RocketLab. NBR put his wealth at $11b, although that was just before the latest tech market rout led by SpaceX, and 10% of RocketLab is today worth slightly less, at around NZ$8.46b. Still, Beck is likely to remain at least a billionaire, even if it falls further, particularly as the company can rely on recurring US government defence revenue.

Similarly Sir Peter Jackson will no doubt retain a great deal of his $2.6b fortune - regardless of what happens - as it has already been made through the $1.6b sale of Weta Digital and box office revenue made from projects already undertaken. Yes, he spends some of that wealth on the likes of trying to revive the dodo bird or indulging his love of aviation memorabilia, but that is essentially chump change for the world’s third-ever billionaire director.

The only area with some vulnerability could be his $350m property portfolio. And that goes for several other property titans - perennial NBR listers like the Goodman Family, Sir Michael Friedlander and Peter Cooper, who are all billionaires enjoying old and new money.

These people emerged still loaded from the post-pandemic property crash where values plummeted 17% from their 2021 peaks. And even while the market has failed to regain its mojo, the ultra-luxury coastal estates, massive high-yielding commercial blocks, and sprawling South Island high-country stations that the uber wealthy tend to favour when they splash the cash are not anywhere near as vulnerable to a waxing and waning market as the average suburban villa.

Can a billionaire suffer enough reputational damage to reduce personal wealth? That is a question that could apply to Sir Rod Drury, who sits at 8th on NBR’s top 10 list with $1.8b.

Drury was a successful businessman even before he grew Xero into a $28b software giant, cashing out big time over several years while retaining a small minority stake (under 3%). That stake is nevertheless worth millions, even while Xero stock has lost about half its value in the last five years. These days it helps Drury throw money into start-ups, infrastructure projects and philanthropic pursuits.

However, the billionaire businessman has this year been the subject of negative press scrutiny for some of his actions during his time growing Xero, prompting him to hand back the New Zealander of the Year award. The issue is unlikely to see Drury’s core wealth affected.

But in theory it could deter high growth start-ups from taking money from him, cause him problems in terms of structural roadblocks for his infrastructure projects if officials want to distance themselves from him, and of course, cost him a heap in lawyers, PR firms and possibly even private investigator fees should he decide to mount a legal defence to the accusations.