‘A clear regional divide’ in the property market
Wednesday, 8 July 2026
There’s increasing divergence in house prices in property markets around the country, but the headline national figure is masking the divide, Quotable Value (QV) says.
The property valuation company has released its latest House Price Index which shows house prices nationwide fell by 0.4% to $906,443 over the three months to the end of June.
That left the national average down from $910,479 at the same time last year, and 14.8% below the market peak of $1.04 million in January 2022.
But QV spokesperson Simon Petersen said that beyond the headline figure the national average told only part of the story, and was masking a growing divide in markets.
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“There’s now a clear regional divide between the country’s strongest-performing property markets and those where home values are largely drifting sideways or slightly downward.”
Of the country’s three biggest cities, Christchurch was the only one to record price growth. It was up 0.9% over the quarter and 3.9% annually to an average of $805,736 in June.
In contrast, Auckland’s average was down 0.7% on a quarterly basis and 2.9% annually to $1.18 million, while Wellington’s was down 1% quarterly and 3.1% annually to $899,140.
The north-south divide was evident throughout the data.
In the North Island, Tauranga was the only city to see quarterly price growth, up 0.9% to $1.04m in June, although prices in Whangārei and New Plymouth remained flat.
But in the South Island, prices increased everywhere south of Greymouth over the quarter, except for Dunedin where prices were down 0.3% to $657,591.
Greymouth’s prices had the biggest quarterly increase in the country, up 2.2% to $472,424, while Gisborne had the biggest price decrease, down 4.2% to $614,447.
Petersen said Canterbury and Southland continued to benefit from strong local economies, relative affordability and more balanced supply-and-demand conditions, which were supporting demand and prices.
Elsewhere, weaker economic conditions and an abundance of properties for sale were helping to maintain downward pressure on prices, he said.
“Broader political and economic uncertainty is weighing heavily on buyer confidence, while cost-of-living pressures remain a significant challenge for many households, and many prospective purchasers are choosing to sit on the sidelines.”
The exception was first-home buyers who remained active across most of the country, supported by elevated stock levels, although they were taking a careful, non-urgent approach, he said.
“But the second half of the year will bring no shortage of economic and political milestones for the housing market, beginning with today’s Official Cash Rate (OCR) announcement.
“Whether the OCR announcement affects buyer behaviour in the short term remains to be seen, but it will be an important part of the wider economic backdrop as we move through the second half of the year.”
On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank lifted the OCR by 0.25 percentage points to 2.50%.
Prior to the Reserve Bank’s move, the issue of how a higher OCR might affect the sluggish property market still hoping to find its feet after global uncertainty was a matter of some debate.
Following the announcement Mathew Tiller, head of research at real estate agency LJ Hooker, said while the move would add further pressure to borrowing costs for some households, it was unlikely to change the direction of the housing market overnight.
Instead, it reinforced the more measured conditions that had been evident over recent months, he said.
Meanwhile, the build-up to the election in November has also now started, and commentators have said that traditionally the property market gets quieter in the months preceding an election.
That’s because buyers and sellers tend to step back as they wait to see which parties form a government, and what policies might be introduced.