Analysts warn US-Iran conflict could be a ‘forever war’
Thursday, 16 July 2026
While we slept
US military strikes on Iran are set to intensify next week, if Tehran does not co-operate in peace talks, says US President Donald Trump.
The US began fresh attacks on Iran after it once again began attacking commercial ships and closed the all-important Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
US Central Command said the strikes were designed to degrade military capabilities Iranian forces have used to attack commercial shipping liners, as the fragile ceasefire agreed last month between the two countries continues to fracture.
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Oil prices continued to edge higher on Wednesday morning following developments.
Andreas Böhm, a lecturer in international affairs at Switzerland’s University of St. Gallen, said the US-Iran conflict risked becoming a drawn-out years-long war.
He told CNBC Trump had started the war “without a goal,” making it difficult to predict what might come next.
“Trump is stuck in a mess of his own (and Israel’s) making and can’t find a face-saving way out of it, while the Iranians assume they are still in conflict and are therefore trying to maximise their gains.”
He went on to say: “This might result in a long-time low-level conflict and therefore one of the forever-wars Trump pledged to end. Each side will try to raise the costs for the respective other until it will become prohibitive.”
Market Summary
Wall Street rose on Wednesday, as major technology stocks advanced.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones each moved 0.3% higher, meanwhile the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 0.5%.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 edged down 0.1%, with losses across most sectors outweighing gains in technology shares.
Asian markets also rose on Wednesday, following broadly positive cues from the US. South Korea’s Kospi rose more than 6% in early trading, the Nikkei gained 0.4%, and the broad MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose 1.7%.
Back here, New Zealand’s S&P/NZX50 closed down for a third consecutive day on Wednesday, on muted volumes. A drop of 0.12% was recorded, with A2 Milk losing nearly 2% and impacting the overall market after China’s second quarter economic growth fell unexpectedly short - growing by just 4.3% rather than the 4.5% market consensus.
Other economic news was downbeat - house sales around the country slumped in June; the owner of Northland Mill confirmed its closure with the potential loss of 60 jobs; two-thirds of people said they’d had to dip into savings to make ends meet according to an Experian survey; consumer spending dropped in June and the global oil situation was once more causing concern.
On the main board, New Talisman Gold Mines fell 9.09%, PaySauce fell 8.70%, Metro Performance Glass lost 8.33%, Rua Bioscience retreated by 5.13% and Cooks Coffee dropped 4.44% on releasing its ECG report.
Gainers included Arborgen, up 8.70% after saying yesterday it had sold its Ridgeville head office for US$10.85 million and would pay down debt with the proceeds. Bremworth rose 7.14%, Black Pearl Group was up 5.66%, Delegat rose 5.39% and Smart Bitcoin ETF advanced 4.29% today, reversing several days of intense selling pressure.
The S&P/ASX 200 closed up 0.37% on Wednesday, led up by mineral play Kingsgate Consolidated, which gained 15.89% as it reported capacity improvements, while biotech firm Mesoblast rose 8.82% as it experiences record-breaking sales of its flagship stem-cell product, Ryoncil.
What’s up today
In today’s The Post, Miriam Bell reports the days of construction policy “flip flops” are over and Dita De Boni reports consumer spending appetite returns to the dumps in June. Mike O’Donnell writes about a North American Matariki celebration and the economics of authenticity, Natalie Williams writes about the flaw in New Zealand’s favourite way to get rich and in today’s Global Read, AP reports Warren Buffett fails to give annual donation to Bill Gates' foundation after Microsoft cofounder's Epstein ties disclosed.