Zone Out: School rolls in more ‘expensive’ parts of Porirua are growing

Tuesday, 25 March 2025

Pāuatahanui School principal Caine Webster says owners of farmland around his school are subdividing their land– and young families are buying the sections.

This week, The Post is looking at the relationship between housing affordability and primary school enrolments in Wellington. In today’s instalment of our Zone Out series, Brittany Keogh reports on why schools in Porirua are bucking the regional trend.

The zone around Pāuatahanui School is one of the most expensive parts of Wellington to live in.

Real Estate Institute of New Zealand data showed that in the year to July 2024, an “average” property in the area would set you back $1,238,000.

However, while some other primary schools in wealthy suburbs – such as Worser Bay, Wadestown and Hataitai – have, according to Ministry of Education statistics, seen significant declines in their rolls, enrolments at Pāuatahanui School have risen by more than a quarter over the past decade.

Naenae Primary School longtime principal Murray Bootten discusses the problems rising house prices are causing.

For our series Zone Out, The Post has this week been investigating the relationship between housing affordability and school enrolments at Wellington primary schools.

We’ve found that while there is a correlation between high property prices and falling school enrolments across the region, in Porirua, in general, the opposite is true; schools surrounded by more expensive homes are growing, while those in more affordable areas tend to be shrinking. The correlation is stronger than for Wellington generally.

The obvious question is why?

Pāuatahanui School principal Caine Webster’s view: “it definitely is a lifestyle thing”.

He often hears from members of the community that owners of farmland are subdividing their properties into blocks of four, five or six – and young families are buying the sections to build their dream homes on.

Data from the Ministry of Education showed that Pāuatahanui School’s roll grew by around a quarter over the decade to July 2024 (from 172 to 218).

Pāuatahanui School principal Caine Webster says he’s hearing of new housing being built inside the zone all the time.

“I do get a little bit nervous when I hear [about] all of the subdividing of land that is happening, because we're quite happy with our roll. We don't really want to get any bigger. But, you know, that's out of our control,” Webster says.

The fact that parents actively try to get into the school’s zone, which stretches from Paekākāriki Hill Rd, through Judgeford to Murphys and Flightys Rds encompassing part of Whitby, is both heartening and challenging.

While the property prices in the zone are high compared with other parts of Wellington, you get more bang for your buck around Pāuatahanui than elsewhere.

Papakōwhai School has seen even steeper growth in enrolments, of 42% (from 356 to 507). The average house in its zone was valued at $1.13 million, the REINZ data showed.

The Carrus Corporation’s Aotea housing development falls inside Papakōwhai’s zone.

According to statistics from the 2023 Census, Aotea was the second fastest growing suburb in wider Wellington, with 405 children aged 5 to 10 living there.

Papakōwhai School did not respond to a request for comment.

Another upcoming major development, Plimmerton Farm, is planned within the Plimmerton School zone. What effect this will have on enrolment figures remains to be seen.

Tītahi Bay School was the only zone in Porirua for which data was available (school zones where there had been fewer than 15 sales in the 12 months to July 2024 were excluded from the dataset) which had a median property price below the regional average of $765,000.

Its roll fell by 17% between 2014 and 2024, from 420 to 348 pupils.

Principal Matt Tilley says he isn’t sure why enrolments have fallen because he has been at the school only since 2022.

However, “there’s not really any new housing. There’s not a whole lot of room out here.”

While he’s heard instances of home owners subdividing large back yards to put in new housing, this has not been significant enough to change the school roll, he says.

In terms of the factors that were drawing people to Porirua more generally, Tilley says the weather in Porirua is “miles better” than it is in Wellington city. “It’s almost a completely different climate.”

Census data also revealed that as a region, Wellington is in kid drought. There were 5% fewer children living in the capital in 2023 than five years earlier. That’s despite the fact that the total population of Wellington grew by 2.8% over the same period.

Tomorrow, in the fourth instalment of Zone Out, Deborah Morris looks at how school zoning factors into the decisions buyers make in the real estate sector.