We need to pull together all the strands of long-term planning
Tuesday, 25 March 2025
Alex Matthews is a Wellington business person in the digital production / IT / games sector, a strategic planner, and an avid futurist passionate about Aotearoa’s role on the global stage.
OPINION: It is hard to ignore the fact that the world is changing at an ever faster rate; and that we are in the thick of multiple huge moments in history. Whanganui-a-tara, like wider Aotearoa, needs to be extremely strategic in how it intends to ride these waves of change. With the dawning of a new technological industrial revolution, the seeming inevitable acceleration of climate change, the seismic shifting of global power politics, or the rapidly evolving nature of modern society, we have an opportunity to walk into the future in a way that is deliberate rather than accidental.
Planning decades ahead is an enormous challenge for any country, especially one with regular changes of power that sees long-term visions come and go. However, we must demand our leaders focus on visions that reach far into the future. I believe we already have this, but we need to keep reinforcing it. Te Tiriti, nuclear-free policy, Kiwisaver, and even the deeply loved Town Belt of forest that surrounds our city, all share in common that they were visions by leaders who looked ahead with insight and courage. They realised decisions had to be made to set future generations up for success, and to mitigate predictable catastrophes.
Crucially, these strategies need to be made in conversation with the people; to include them meaningfully in the process, so any far-reaching plans have an element of social consensus, enabling them to endure. Long-term planning we already have in local and central Government is often focused on select topic audiences.
As the longest term example, we have The Treasury’s 40 Year Long Term Fiscal Mode for forecasting economic scenarios. The WCC, like all city councils, makes a commendable effort to strategically plan 10 years in advance.Then there’s MFAT’s Strategic Intentions 2024-2028 that lays out our diplomatic priorities. There was the National Security Strategy (2023-2028), led by the previous prime minister, much of which appears to still be in play.
The problem is that all this information is not centralised, it is not accessible, digestible, and interactable with the public. It neglects many important issues that the public cares about, and misses opportunities to think even more long term.
A few examples it would be great to see more heavily discussed in the public domain, already reflected in our national strategies would be:
Future technologies strategy
How will New Zealand harness new technologies as they develop, based on probabilities of certain technologies, either currently in concept, R&D or active implementation? Too often our policy makers seem unaware of technological developments or near-future possible developments, and are reactive to them. How will revolutions in material science, energy, nanotech, biotech, robotics and AI affect us, and how do we plan for various scenarios to ensure we consciously guide them toward what we want for our civilisation?
Pacific leadership strategy
New Zealand depends on its unique model of friendship, multi-culturalism, peaceful co-existence and tolerance to navigate the complex power dynamics of the Pacific. With the next few decades looking likely to involve disruption, the uniquely positive aspects to our culture will be more important than ever. How can we maintain, even grow our leadership role in the wider Pacific, in a way that is respectful and complimentary to our many partners? How do we spread influence through cultural soft power, through the export of our ideas, and the integrity of our goodwill?
Immigration and tourism strategy
How do we safeguard and invest further in the things that make us attractive? Historically leading factors were our pristine environment, economic growth potential, social mobility, perceived low-racism and high social equality. A world-class education export system also drove large numbers here, and many to contribute their research, skills, and enterprises long term. However, these, like all of our strong points, are vulnerable to changing swiftly or being out-competed by other nations. They can be rapidly lost if we don’t staunchly make them priorities. How can we plan long-term to preserve and reinforce these strengths, in a way that the public can share in the vision and the outcomes?
Imagine if the average person, through a single web portal, could easily find long-term planning and strategy relating to their areas of interest and region, created by experts whose recommendations otherwise end up at the bottom of a pile of papers on someone’s desk. Imagine if all our institutions and leaders took it as a core priority and moral responsibility to work on far-reaching plans, that superseded all of their terms, careers, and generations.
At the heart of the issue is the long-term investment in the importance of developing cultural consensus. It can be guided by subject matter masters, highlighting the risks, identifying the opportunities, and recommending what needs to be done. In a world of differing values, we need a common denominator to find consensus on issues that affect us all. It may be one of the hardest things a society can achieve. But it is essential, and we have to have the will to achieve it.