The ‘narco state’ next door: How Mexico’s cartels are muscling into New Zealand

Sunday, 6 July 2025

Stamped with logos, marked for our shores; Mexican cartels are turning the Pacific into their playground, and Aotearoa into their market. The warnings are clear, but are we listening? Benn Bathgate and Virginia Fallon investigate.

The packages were neatly wrapped in blue plastic, stashed in duffel bags, and stamped with ‘GGG’ and the image of a lion.

When customs officers pried open the shipping container at the Port of Tauranga in May they weren’t just looking at 130kg of cocaine, they were looking at a brand.

To most people, the stamps might resemble cryptic company logos or designer labels, and in a way they are: blatant advertisements for $50m worth of drugs.

But to experts, the markers are more than packaging; they’re a calling card, a flex, and a warning from Mexican cartels, some of the world’s most dangerous organised crime groups.

And right now, those groups are vying for one of the world’s most lucrative drug markets: New Zealand.

In 2016, you may remember the diamante horse head police proudly put on display after intercepting a 35kg cocaine shipment worth $14m. At the time it was the largest cocaine bust (and the most glamorous). But those numbers pale in comparison now.

May’s drug bust, and another one this week, comes amidst growing cocaine use in Aotearoa and fears from officials that we could end up with a “narco state” in our Pacific backyard.

Associate Police Minister Casey Costello, in an exclusive interview with the Star-Times, knows it might seem far-fetched but says the danger posed by cartels is very real.

“It does sound like a TV show, and the organised crime reality is something I don't think the public have a good appreciation of.

“They’re not what we think about gangs traditionally, they are huge criminal enterprises and they are big businesses.”

And they’re already here. Just as experts say record seizures are being made at NZ’s border, police wastewater data shows a 90% increase in cocaine use between 2023 and 2024, while the latest annual Drug Use in Aotearoa report found consumption has surged by 229% in recent years.

Adding to the Government’s concerns is a warning from a Ministerial Advisory Group set up by Costello in response to the issue.

Last month, it reported the Pacific Islands are seriously targeted by transnational organised crime groups who are using its waters as a 'corridor' for drug shipments between production and consumption bases.

The report found that corruption, particularly in relation to organised crime, is “not only present but growing in scope and sophistication”.

While just like NZ, the Pacific Islands have long been seen as immune from high levels of international organised crime due to their remoteness, the minister was told this is no longer the case.

“…there is a real risk the nurturing corruption environment will lead to organised crime groups becoming entrenched and dominating all aspects of society to the point where is becomes impossible to stop a series of narco- states being established on New Zealand’s doorstep.”

Jarrod Gilbert, a sociologist at the University of Canterbury, was part of the group behind the report.

“The long and the short of it is that organised crime groups have tremendous amounts of money,” he says this week.

“In the Pacific, we have key industries in the public and government sectors that pay very little. Marry that with some cultural considerations where doing favours for people, and seniority within villages, lends itself to what we would consider corruption.”

Gilbert says that while the outcomes are going to be “utterly catastrophic” for NZ’s Pacific neighbours, they’re also giving a front door to this country.

“Our historical lack of corruption means we’re complacent, and have therefore under-appreciated the tidal wave that’s on its way.

“In fact we’re already seeing it, we don’t have great data on it because we haven’t taken it seriously, but the problem is already here.”

The problem, of course, is both drugs and those behind them.

Although Aotearoa has long seen a “homegrown” drug industry, that all changed following the Covid lockdowns, Costello says.

Once the borders reopened, the country began to be seen as a lucrative market - now it’s cocaine, but for a long time it’s been methamphetamine - something she also links to the 501 deportation policy that introduced a new criminal element into NZ.

Unlike traditional gangs, these groups function more like large, well-organised corporations with international connections, extensive resources, and the ability to quickly establish operation.

“We move at the pace of law and they move at the pace of money.'

Costello says it’s astonishing.

'Ten years ago, Customs seized 55kg of meth in a year and they're now seizing 90kg in a week. That’s how fast it changed and yet we're still seeing our wastewater results out of control.'

While the deals and drugs might be done by strangers, Costello is clear that all of Aotearoa suffers under organised crime. Not only are tax dollars funding the fight, but the cartels are “creating a demand on which they grow their market”.

In turn, addicts commit crimes to fund their habit, and drug-use fuels almost all types of violence - family and sexual violence included.

But just as money is fuelling the cartels, Costello says it’s by hitting them financially that they can be stopped.

“We have to go after the money, because if it’s not profitable then they’ll go somewhere else.”

The Government is already trying. As well as advisory groups and an international, multi-agency approach to shore up borders and target corruption, officials have introduced two new uncrewed patrol vessels and committed $35 million to Customs to combat organised crime and drug smuggling.

Next week, Costello will travel to Tonga and other Pacific nations where New Zealand is also helping strengthen borders and governance processes.

“Remember, they're businesses. If you speak to the old-head gang members in NZ they've seen a shift there as well.

“There's no code or honour, it's about the money; that's why the level of violence has increased so much.

'They are massive organisations with huge amounts of money to entice people…it's a different world now and we have to be a lot smarter.'

This week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said NZ is committed to supporting the security, stability, and well-being of the Pacific region.

“We are seriously concerned by activities that undermine this, including drug-related transnational organised crime and the associated impacts on communities.”

But who, or what, are these cartels?

Detective Inspector Greg Williams, director of the National Organised Crime Group, says while he’s sure there are other players eyeing NZ, “the bulk” of the drug is coming from the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

“[There] has been for some time, the two major players.”

Those major players are, according to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), “two of the most powerful and violent transnational organisations in the world”.

While the two have been long-time rivals in the murderous drug-trafficking business, recent reports suggest a faction of Sinaloa - led by the sons of the drug lord known as El Chapo - has recently joined with the CJNG, bolstering their collective power amidst an aggressive crackdown by the Mexican Government on Donald Trump’s orders.

The alliance could ultimately turn the CJNG into the world’s biggest drug trafficker, “a shift that could potentially redraw alliances and power structures across international drug markets,” analysts told The New York Times.

And make no mistake, NZ is firmly fixed in their sights.

According to a recent DEA report, the groups are “increasingly targeting illicit drug markets in Australia and New Zealand”, and hold long-term expansion goals and links to organised criminal groups in both countries.

“Australia and New Zealand will continue to be two of the most desirable markets, primarily due to the high cost of illicit drugs, and therefore potential for high profit margins.”

The financial incentive for cartels is obvious. According to the DEA, a kilo of cocaine costs around $7500 in Mexico, $13,500 in the US, $107k in Australia, and up to $180k in NZ.

Back to Gilbert who says, respectfully, that it doesn’t really matter if Customs does a great job and catches a huge shipment.

“Because they only need one to get through and the profit margins are so high that its a business risk worth taking.

“And that’s what we’re seeing: record seizures at the border but record waste-water testing for cocaine.”

As for the crime organisations behind it all? Gilbert says that if Aotearoa thinks our home-grown Mongrel Mob is bad then we ain’t seen nothing yet.

“It’s like comparing a local fish and chip shop to the McDonald’s’ franchise.

“These are hugely profitable and sophisticated enterprises that have tentacles and connections throughout the world and are very smart at business.”

But just as both Gilbert and Williams are sure that other cartel groups are eyeing NZ, so are other experts.

Customs investigations manager Dominic Adams says the ‘GGG’ found on May’s shipment is most likely “branding” used by cartels to generate “product confidence”.

Another explanation, he says, is that sometimes large cocaine shipments can be destined for more than one buyer, so the marks are used to differentiate between buyers in the destination country.

Though according to another expert, the lion stamp may well be less about marketing and more a chilling sign that new players are muscling in.

“This could be a nod to Gustavo Gaviria, who used to control the trade routes and finances for the Medellín Cartel,” says Dr Jared R. Dmello, a cartel expert and senior lecturer in criminology at the University of Adelaide.

“He was Pablo Escobar’s cousin and right-hand man — often referred to as El León, the Lion.”

University of Waikato law professor Al Gillespie says that NZ will continue to be an attractive destination for the cocaine cartels given the production glut and our high prices.

Production-wise, a United Nations report last week said the global cocaine market was both breaking its own record and had flooded the US.

Production, seizures, and use of cocaine all hit new highs in 2023, making cocaine the world’s fastest-growing illicit drug market. Illegal production skyrocketed to 3708 tons, nearly 34% more than in 2022.

Gillespie also has a warning about the cartels’ power to alter our local criminal landscape.

“The increased drug trade will be linked to multinational criminal enterprises, that we can expect will use the same tools to maintain their markets as overseas, which is corruption in the authorities and firearms violence, to create and maintain new markets.”

The cocaine labelled GGG and stamped with the picture of the lion that was found in May arrived from Italy via Panama in a container full of machinery.

This week, again at the Port of Tauranga, customs officers prised open another container and found 150kg of cocaine.

That most recent find brings a total of 788kg intercepted in the financial year, worth a combined estimated street value of close to $306m.

This time, the bricks were again found in six duffel bags, though were marked with an 'X', the words 'good luck' and a coat of arms bearing the Latin phrase Custodi Civatatem Domine - meaning 'Guard the city, O Lord'.

This time, the container was shipped from Jamaica. A different route, a different shipment, a different set of stamps.

But the message, authorities say, is the same: the cartels aren’t just coming - they’re already here.