Who counts the homeless when we scrap the census? Housing researcher warns move is ‘really scary’

Sunday, 10 August 2025

The motto for the census is “all of us count”, and counting those of us who don’t have a home requires a huge effort.

Fieldworkers set up at frontline agencies and help vulnerable people who are sceptical about sharing details of their lives fill in the long surveys.

Kai and backpacks containing snacks, sunglasses and travel cutlery are used as incentives to draw in hard-to-reach communities alongside the promise that they’re valued and they count.

The single official record we have for recording severe housing deprivation has been the census; and the Government has now scrapped it.

This has independent housing researcher Greg Waite worried the move will obscure homelessness.

“If we don't count, we can't help.”

Waite says the impact of that decision is “really scary” because incomplete data can lead to poor policy.

“In New Zealand we have such specific problems with over-priced housing and homelessness and substandard housing, it’s a massive problem, and the census is the best tool for collecting it and we’re going to lose it.

“It’s sort of a slow attrition of all these decisions about cutting everything.”

The census figures are New Zealand’s best estimate of severe housing deprivation and comes from a mix of street surveys, data from refuges and government agencies; but even so it struggles to accurately capture the scale of homelessness and undercounting is likely.

As at the 2023 Census, 112,496 people (2.3% of the population) were homeless; but Stats NZ wasn’t able to determine the severe housing deprivation status for 355,299 people.

For the first time, the last census included estimates for the LGBTIQ+ population and disabled people and found both groups were disproportionately affected.

Homelessness is defined as living somewhere without basic necessities, like access to cooking facilities, a shower or drinking water and includes people living without shelter, in temporary accommodation, sharing someone else’s private dwelling and in uninhabitable housing.

The panel which looked at how to modernise the census recommended a full census in 2028 with some administrative data published as official statistics in 2026 before moving to more flexible options in 2033.

Cabinet rejected this and in June decided to scrap it altogether to “save time and money”.

The next survey was projected to cost $400 million, with Statistics Minister Shane Reti saying relying on a “nationwide census day is no longer financially viable”.

But officials warned Reti there would be “a significant decrease in initial quality” of data on crowded households, housing conditions, access to amenities and severe housing deprivation (homelessness).

“This is a complex and challenging area under any census model, and a lot of work will be required to do this well,” officials said.

“Many government agencies are concerned that vulnerable groups may become less visible in national statistics, especially in the short-term. If these concerns are not adequately mitigated, this could lead to unmet needs, unexpected cost pressures and less effective and efficient funding and targeting of services.”

The Sunday Star-Times asked Reti what his plan was to replace the official record of homelessness and his office referred the question to Stats NZ.

General manager of population and housing Sean Broughton said collecting information about homelessness had always been challenging.

“It was challenging with the traditional five-year census and will be with the new model.”

In the future, Stats NZ will measure severe housing deprivation and homelessness by collaborating with government agencies, customers, and the wider user community to develop and refine new approaches, Broughton said.

A range of strategies will need to be used including household surveying to collect information about people sharing accommodation with another household or living in a dwelling lacking basic amenities.

And measuring temporary accommodation will involve a mix of data from service providers and sampling non-private dwellings.

Waite said administrative data worked best alongside a robust census but could be undermined as government cuts bit into core services.

“They won’t have a past so they won’t measure trend,” said Waite.

“It’s certainly not an improvement. It’s a step backwards. We will all have to make the best of these changes.”

Labour’s housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said ministers will have to start listening to frontline providers because they’re scrapping the only official measure.

He was concerned ministers were continuing to deny their move to restrict access to emergency housing had caused an increase in the number of people living on the street and in cars, which numerous reports from housing providers had said.

“You can’t claim to have any understanding of the level of homelessness if you’re going to dismiss the feedback of the providers,” said McAnulty.

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