Little tops first poll in Wellington mayoral race

Wednesday, 3 September 2025

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Labour candidate Andrew Little has topped the first known poll in the Wellington mayoral race.

The Curia poll, commissioned by lobby group Common Ground Aotearoa that wants an overhaul of Wellington’s property rating system, shows support for changing rates to focus on land value rather than land plus building value.

The poll of 750 Wellingtonians, conducted from August 22 to 28, had a large number of undecided voters with Little being the top pick on 30% and Ray Chung on 13%. Diane Calvert was on 11%, Karl Tiefenbacher was on 6% and Alex Baker was on 4%.

However, of just those who had decided on their top pick, Little was on 45% with Chung on 19%.

While it is a confidence boost for Little and the team of Labour candidates running for ward seats, recent history shows the race is far from a done deal.

The first scientific poll in the lead up to the 2022 Wellington council election had Labour candidate Paul Eagle with a narrow lead over newcomer Tory Whanau. In the final vote count, Whanau won in a landslide with Eagle slipping to third place behind then-incumbent Andy Foster.

Little said the numbers were encouraging but it was just one poll with five weeks to go until the election.

“I'm taking absolutely nothing for granted and will be working hard for every vote right up until the polls close,” Little said.

“What matters most is that people actually vote.”

Calvert said it was still “anybody’s race” and she was in “catch-up mode” after becoming a latecomer to the race.

“The polls will change very quickly,” she said.

A change to rates based on land value,, as Common Ground Aotearoa is promoting, has long been touted as a fix to stop land-banking, as owners would pay the same rates regardless of what was on the land. Lumping all properties together based on land value only would theoretically inflate rates for under-used land and reduce rates for fully utilised land.

The Wellington City Council was meant to be looking at overhauling the rating system a year ago but this was delayed after the long-term plan was up-ended in 2024 and the council had to spend a year re-working it.

The poll also asked Wellington voters if they supported rating on land value with 40% in favour compared with 35% against. There were 20% who were unsure.

Common Ground Aotearoa researcher Jesse Richardson said the poll showed a clear mandate for the next council to push for the new system. The poll showed that those who were highly engaged in local body politics favoured land-value rates the most.

“Not only is this policy a good progressive idea that has backing from economists, but it also has strong popular support as well,” Richardson said.

An earlier Curia poll, done for Chung-backing group Better Wellington, was released earlier in 2025. It asked people about name recognition with Chung topping the list followed by Calvert.

However, that was before Little – a former Labour leader and senior cabinet minister – joined the race.

The latest Curia poll was conducted August 22 to 28, with a sample of 750 Wellington adults who responded via phone and online panel. From this sample, Curia derived a sub-sample of 540 local election voters; people who either voted in 2022 or say they will definitely vote in this upcoming election.

The poll’s overall margin of error is +/- 3.6% at the 95% confidence level, with a margin of error of +/- 4.2% for local election voters.

Under the STV voting system, which Wellington City Council uses, votes transfer between candidates, which could make opinion polls less representative.

Correction: An earlier version of this story had Ray Chung with 19% of undecided voters. This should have been 13%. Chung had 19% of decided voters only. (Amended September 3, 2025 at 7.10am)