Auckland and Wellington house sellers more likely to lose out

Wednesday, 26 November 2025

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New Zealand homeowners are now more likely to sell at a loss than at any time since 2013 — and the chances are highest in Auckland and Wellington.

Cotality NZ’s latest Pain and Gain Report shows that 87.8% of resales in the September quarter achieved a gross profit, down from 89.4% in the second quarter.

Cotality’s chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said it's the weakest result in more than a decade and reflects a soft market where buyers hold most of the power.

Davidson said values in many parts of the country remained well below their peaks.

“The figures are consistent with property values still being down significantly from their peak in many areas, as well as buyers holding most of the pricing power. Rather than a slump, it has been a gradual drift downwards for resale performance since early 2022.”

Auckland continued to be the toughest market for resellers. Almost one in five Auckland properties — 19.3% — sold for less than their original purchase price in the third quarter, up sharply from 15.9% in the June quarter. Wellington followed at 15.8%, also well above the national average.

Both markets surged to record highs during the boom, meaning buyers who bought in 2021/22 — when prices peaked and interest rates were climbing — are now the most exposed.

“Auckland’s larger pool of apartments also contributes to its higher loss rate, although that reflects long-run performance rather than short-term weakness,” Davidson said.

Nearly nine in every ten sellers still achieved a gain in the three months to September, with the size of those gains remaining substantial even though they are now at a five-year low.

He said buyers who had secured their finance remained in a strong position when it comes to price negotiations, and even though the stock of listings available on the market has declined this year, it remains at a high level by past standards – meaning more vendors are having to accept a lower price to get a sale achieved than they might ordinarily have liked.

The national median resale gain was $270,000, down from the late-2021 peak of $440,000 but still higher than anything recorded before late 2020. The median loss was $50,000. The effective annual return was around $28,400.

Resale gains remained significant for those who have held on to property for longer.

The median hold period for a resale gain reached a record 9.5 years, while loss-making owners had typically held for just 3.7 years.

“Time in the market matters,” Davidson said.

“Longer ownership gives a much greater likelihood of securing a capital gain.”

Standalone houses continued to fare better than apartments. House resales recorded an 11.4% loss rate — the highest since 2013. Apartments remained the riskiest segment, with 36.2% resold at a loss in the third quarter.

Davidson said the pattern reflected long-run behaviour rather than distress, noting apartments generally deliver smaller long-term capital gains.

Among the main centres, Tauranga posted the largest median gain at $352,000, followed by Auckland with $338,000 and Wellington at $330,000.

Christchurch remained the most resilient market with just 5.5% of resales resulting in a loss.

Outside the big cities, Queenstown Lakes remained the standout market, recording only 2.4% loss-making resales and a median gain of $486,000. Invercargill also strengthened, while Nelson saw the sharpest lift in losses, rising from 8.5% to 14.1% quarter-to-quarter.

Loss-making resales were expected to remain elevated in the New Year despite early signs of improving sales activity and easing stock levels, Davidson said.

“Even if sales activity improves, values remain well below their peak,” Davidson said.

He said he expected conditions to improve gradually through 2026, supported by lower mortgage rates and a firmer economy, but warned that a rapid rebound is unlikely.

“Regions with strong affordability or tight supply, such as Queenstown Lakes and parts of the lower South Island, remain best placed to hold their ground.”