Housing supply boom forecast for Auckland

Sunday, 14 December 2025

New forecasting of Auckland’s future housing supply shows a massive increase in the numbers of new homes that will be built over the next decade.

Where they will be built is also changing, moving them closer to jobs and public transport and making better use of high-value inner-city land.

The figures come from the Auckland Council and show the impact of the change to Unitary Plan regulations that was voted in place by the council earlier this year.

The change is known as Plan Change 120, which replaced Plan Change 78.

“The forecast suggests that housing supply could be 6% to 20% higher than under the old Plan Change 78 rules, especially if higher yields of homes per site can bring down average development costs,” the council’s chief economist, Gary Blick, said.

“That means developers could offer more competitive prices, meet higher demand and still make a profit.

“This could imply around 22,000 potential new homes a year under Plan Change 120 over the next decade.

“That’s a big jump from the average of 14,000 homes per year under the current Unitary Plan, but that is sensitive to future interest rates and population growth.”

The previous planning rules, Plan Change 78, would have resulted in three-storey housing across most of Auckland’s urban area.

While both plans allow for significant housing capacity, Blick said the location of that growth is where the biggest difference lies.

“Our forecast shows that Plan Change 120 would concentrate more housing growth near centres, rapid transit and key transport corridors,” he said.

“These are places where people want to live and where development tends to be more commercially viable.

“Location matters. Where we allow new housing is just as important – it matters for people’s daily life, affordability and the overall performance of Auckland’s economy.”

Using new modelling based on “real-world market behaviour”, the forecast found that 35% of new homes would be within walkable distances of town centres and rapid transit stops, up from 26% under the previous plan.

In addition, 17% of new homes would be within 7km of the city centre.

New homes would be more concentrated in areas where infrastructure already exists, reducing pressure for network extensions.

Many of these locations also have relatively high land values, indicating strong demand for housing and access to services, jobs and transport.

“But it is still a forecast, and we have to acknowledge some uncertainty,” Blick cautioned.

“Data shows the Unitary Plan has already allowed a lot more housing, so the gains under Plan Change 120 could be smaller.

“On the other hand, ongoing affordability pressures indicate demand for housing remains high, and that is strong motivation for developers to build more homes in the right places.”

More housing in accessible locations would support shorter commutes and improved job matching and would attract skilled workers. These are all factors associated with higher productivity, Blick said.

“Cities function better when people can live closer to what they need.”

As with any change, there are tradeoffs. Concentrated growth near centres and transport may mean fewer properties are affected by the widespread three-storey housing of Plan Change 78.

However, there could be larger developments in some specific areas that may affect neighbouring properties and gradual changes to local character in some areas.

This would depend on the scale, design and location of future development, Blick said.

“The forecast helps us understand the tradeoffs from the proposed changes to planning rules, with the final changes shaping Auckland’s urban form for years to come.”