Capital comeback: Is Wellington starting to find its spark?
Saturday, 3 January 2026
Kicking the year to touch couldn’t come soon enough for some. 2025 was 12 months of adjectives; challenging, tough, brutal. House prices slumped, businesses closed, there were more job cuts.
In its Q3 regional economic scoreboard, ASB said: “Living in windy Wellington has not been an attractive proposition recently. Population growth over the past year has been flat – with the capital being ground zero for public sector layoffs forcing the hand of some public servants to migrate elsewhere. House sales have remained largely flat over the past year.”
The council’s most recent residents’ monitoring survey hardly made for light reading, either. While about two thirds (67%) of respondents agreed that overall Wellington was a great place to live, work and play, just 45% felt a sense of pride in the way the capital looks and feels.
But that was then, this is 2026.
The appearance of the sun, along with some cautiously optimistic Treasury speak, has seemingly brought a renewed energy to a city that’s been in survival mode.
There’s a new mayor, a new council, and an election ahead. The capital, say the pundits, is set to come alive after ’25, albeit not overnight.
Optimism + realism
Business Central and Wellington Chamber of Commerce CEO Hayley Horan suggests hope grounded in reality is the best way to describe how members are feeling.
“Wellington businesses have shown remarkable resilience through an exceptionally challenging period. From the global pandemic to rising interest rates and the growing cost of living, households and businesses alike have felt the pressure.
“Now, the sentiment points to balanced optimism. Wellington has a highly skilled workforce and a strong private sector. Our Green Light Economy report underscores the opportunity to better capitalise on this, with technology and creative industries leading the way in driving growth and innovation. These bright spots highlight the city’s capacity to adapt and thrive.”
Wellington, she said, was at a critical turning point: “With collaboration and smart policy, we can unlock the city’s full potential. Over the past few weeks, I’ve met with a number of CEOs across Wellington and the region, and the clear message is that many businesses are well-prepared for growth after weathering the storm.
“As we head into 2026, with fresh leadership in Wellington and a general election on the horizon, we have a unique opportunity to shape a more business-friendly environment that drives growth, creates jobs, and powers a vibrant city economy,” Horan said.
Changing tastes
Former mayor Tory Whanau might be heading to Melbourne, but that doesn’t mean she won’t continue to take at least a passing interest in the city she ran for three years.
In fact Whanau sounds quite nostalgic when asked for a prediction on what Wellington might look like in 2026.
“With Civic Square opening, and the library and eventually the town hall, we’ll start to see it open up much more … we’ll see it continue to develop with the investments we’ve made, bringing more people into the city.”
The cyclical nature of business was always tough, she said, but closures, particularly in the hospitality sector, were more about moving with the times rather than dying businesses.
“It’s very much in line with changing tastes and with different generations. Yes, the older cafes have closed, but we’ve become a much more diverse community. It’s probably not dissimilar to Melbourne, where we’re starting to see these quite edgy, more affordable cultural cafes and bars opening.”
Negativity bred division, she said. “We need to be nicer to each other. As someone who’s experienced the other end of that, let’s remember we all love our city. Let’s be kind to it.
“It’s not unique to Wellington, we’re seeing division everywhere but if we were to do more talking face to face, and were kinder to each other, we could get ourselves ahead of the curve.”
Long-time Wellingtonian Dame Miranda Harcourt also suggests the city’s strengths lies in its grassroots energy.
“Coming back to Wellington this year after some months away, we could really see and feel the hit that our city has taken from the civil service cuts in 2024. Restaurants and shops had closed and businesses had shut down. The city looked rundown, and pretty uncared for. The Reading building in Courtenay Pl was still a shuttered, snuffing enterprise.”
Yet, at year’s end there were signs of rejuvenation: performing arts education had been saved “from the jaws of death” through sector collaboration, suburban businesses and local eateries and cinemas were thriving, she said.
“Maybe things have to look alarmingly low for people to take action … I think this spirit of local support to build thriving suburbs is what we need a bit more of in the central city. We are a small city of smart, engaged people. And maybe our new mayor Andrew Little can harness this energy and drive things forward again.
“I don’t think Wellingtonians are afraid of change — but we do need unity and vision to allow change to happen.”
On the ground
Francois Febvre, owner of the city’s La Cloche patisseries, reckons 2025 has been the worst year since Covid. “I think everyone hopes it has hit rock bottom.”
That, of course, means the only way now is up. Febvre too believes the election - and the likely political sweeteners that go hand in hand with campaigning - will help in buoying the mood.
But it’s boots on the ground that will really help the local economy, he says, with a nod to Finance Minister Nicola Willis’ push to get government workers back to the office.
“I talk to a lot of people and even older Wellingtonians, who are faithful to the city, are starting to wonder about it. That’s not a good sign.
“Really I am nostalgic for the days of absolutely positive Wellington. In the early 2000s we were the best little capital in the world, and I really believe that’s true. It used to be like that and I don’t see why we can’t get back to being that way.”
Febvre has “big hopes” that the new, “more unified” council will bring some much-needed change and reverse the exodus which has seen scores of young people leave.
“We need to make it more affordable … to make it more attractive to young people. They are the future of this city.”
Clint Black, owner of Willis St design store Bello, points to working from home, along with job cuts and less money in pockets as contributing to his decision to move to an online operation only - after 26 years of having a physical shop front.
“We’ll still be a Wellington business. But the reality is that with so many people working from home and the slower economy, we just don’t have enough people through the front door.”
With the store’s lease ending he had decided an online only store was more in keeping with current trends.
Meanwhile Squirrel mortgage advisor Nick Virtue also points to job security, and opportunity, as a key driver to the city’s success or otherwise, noting a change at council level will, in itself, have little material impact on the property market.
“This will likely only be influenced from a government perspective, due to their prior redeployment of resources.”
Hanging our hat on OCR reductions to shift the economy (both locally and nationally) wasn’t the strongest approach, either. “New initiatives need to be enacted. Talk of roading projects while positive, is nothing new, and will only benefit consultants in the short term.
“Stimulating the movie industry, and encouraging international students back, is a good start for Wellington, but it’s up to government to get creative with how this is done.”
On yer bike
Former health boss Sir Ashley Bloomfield’s family moved to Wellington when he was six. More than half a century on he remains a dyed-in-the-wool cheerleader for the city.
“It’s a bit of a cliché, but there’s so much amazing natural beauty … wherever you live in Wellington you have really good access to the harbour, the hills, the waterfront. We might not have the most spectacular beaches in the world, but we’ve got some great ones in the city and around the Eastern bays and Kāpiti.”
The completion of the shared cycling and walking path between Ngāuranga and Petone (expected to be finished by May) will add another dimension to Wellington’s great outdoors.
“To think you’ll be able to pretty much cycle from Eastbourne to the airport on dedicated cycleways is just amazing.”
He’s already dog-earing the brochure for the month-long Festival of the Arts being held here in February and March and, like the others, is looking forward to the buzz of a general election.
“Wellington is a city that really does take a deep interest in politics, local body and national, so [the election] will, I hope, create a lot of energy around the city with people participating in the democratic process and having those conversations, and contests of ideas, which is what politics is all about.”
Still, as a long-time public servant he knows it’s been hard yakka for many, and that people are struggling, whether that’s students paying outrageous amounts for “pretty second-rate” accommodation, the newly unemployed, or families facing ever-rising household bills.
“I'm not expecting it's going to be an easier year economically for the city. There are lots of challenges there, but there are also a lot of good things … we have so much we can be grateful for. It’s up to us.
“The city is the people. There’s a lot to be positive about in terms of living in this city, and I encourage Wellingtonians to focus on that.”
Positive with a capital P
Bloomfield has an ally in actor Karen O’Leary, of Wellington Paranormal fame.
Describing herself as relentlessly positive, she has high hopes for 2026. “I hope, as a city, we keep believing in ourselves and our coolness. I would love us to continue to be a city where people and their diversity are at the heart of what we do. That means being open minded and accepting. We can love cycle lanes, small business, the environment, the economy - all at the same time.”
The city’s plethora of “talented, amazing, collaborative, creative people” should be celebrated ‒“we could lobby the government for a $3.9 million tax break for artists” ‒ as should those working towards making it predator-free.
And like Whanau, O’Leary suggests taking a leaf out of the kindness book. ”We don’t want to be a city where harassment and bullying is accepted.
“Ultimately I would love Wellington to keep learning, keep growing and unite. We are all Wellingtonians, and we should know that difference is not something to fear, it’s an opportunity for growth. Kia kaha Wellington. We can be proud of our fantastic city.”