NZ house price forecast 2026: 75% of Kiwis say prices are sure to rise
Thursday, 29 January 2026
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Nearly three quarters of the Kiwis surveyed expect house prices to rise this year, as confidence lifts with the New Zealand’s housing market slowly showing steady signs of recovery.
Cotality NZ’s Decoding 2026 report looked at expectations from real estate agents, as well as views from banking, lending and related property sectors, which showed that almost 75% expected prices to rise in 2026.
That confidence was highest in Canterbury, the region that has held on to house prices best around the country - with 87% of respondents expecting prices to rise and almost two-thirds forecasting growth above the national average.
Auckland’s sentiment has improved but remains cautious, with 73% anticipating price growth amid concerns around employment conditions, affordability and lending appetite.
Wellington continues to lag, with 63% expecting prices to rise, though only 7% foresee growth above 5% and most expect underperformance compared to the national trend.
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Cotality New Zealand head of research Nick Goodall said sentiment had improved from recent lows but remained cautious, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty, a soft jobs market and high levels of housing supply.
“The survey provides an important industry pulse on how confidence is rebuilding across housing after a prolonged period of subdued conditions,” Goodall said.
New Zealand’s housing market recovery was progressing at different speeds across regions and buyer segments.
But it was not about a rapid recovery. Goodall said the survey results suggested the outlook for New Zealand house prices was improving, although expectations around the pace of growth remain measured.
Goodall said just 14 % expected prices to rise by more than 5%.
He said stronger confidence in Canterbury reflected a more balanced market and comparatively resilient demand.
Auckland sentiment has improved but remains measured. Around 73% of respondents expected prices to rise in New Zealand’s largest city, with concerns lingering around employment conditions, affordability pressures and lending appetite.
“Auckland is still dealing with affordability constraints and greater sensitivity to borrowing conditions,” Goodall said, adding that confidence there remained more fragile than in some other regions.
Goodall said the housing recovery was progressing at different speeds across the country and could not be applied evenly across regions.
“On the whole, New Zealand’s housing market is showing tentative signs of improvement, but it’s quite fragmented,” he said.
Interest rate expectations continued to shape sentiment.
He said following the Reserve Bank’s late-November decision to cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, fewer respondents now expected further rate cuts in 2026, with many anticipating rates will remain on hold.
Goodall said lower mortgage rates were beginning to flow through the market as fixed terms expired, supporting strong first home buyer activity and a gradual return of mortgaged investors.
Planning reforms had also added cautious longer-term optimism, with nearly half of respondents believing recent changes to planning laws and the Resource Management Act would benefit their region over the next two to three years.
However, most said it was too early to assess any immediate impact on housing supply.
Goodall said the survey pointed to a more stable outlook for 2026 than in recent years, with confidence rebuilding but expectations remaining grounded.
“Credit availability, interest rates and how quickly supply can respond to renewed demand will determine how far and how fast New Zealand’s house prices move from here,” he said.