Time for New Zealand to become the seventh state of Australia
Tuesday, 3 February 2026
David Farrar is a Wellington pollster and political commentator via his Kiwiblog site. He is a member of and former parliamentary staffer for the National Party. The views in this article are purely his.
OPINION: As the world moves from a rules-based order to a might is right order, it is now time for New Zealand to take up the 125-year-old invitation to become a state of Australia.
The Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900 is an act of the UK Parliament which established Australia. In clause 6 it defines the states as “the colonies of New South Wales, New Zealand, Queensland, Tasmania, Victoria, Western Australia, and South Australia”.
New Zealand was involved in the formation of Australia. We sent delegates to the 1890s to the Australasian Federation Conventions. The ability to join was deliberate, not just a whim.
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NZ Premier Richard Seddon didn’t want to go from being the leader of a country to leader of a state. He set up a royal commission which recommended against joining in an 819 page report, so we never joined. At the time that was probably the right decision.
Like most New Zealanders, I have never been a serious proponent of New Zealand joining Australia. I like New Zealand being an independent country. But I think the change in the world order over the last decade means New Zealand should now join Australia as a state.
Since World War II there has largely been a rules-based order which has been very beneficial to small countries like New Zealand. It has allowed us to prosper, and develop strong economic and political relationships with competing powers such as the US and China. The rules-based order was about more powerful countries agreeing to restrain their power, in the interests of global stability and security.
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But as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney pointed out at the World Economic Forum, the rules-based order has been ruptured. Carney said it was not a transition but an ending. The rules-based order is gone, and is not returning. We are in an era where countries with might will do what they see as right for them.
Some may think things will go back to normal when Donald Trump is no longer US President in 2029. They are wrong. A JD Vance presidency could well be even more nationalistic than the Trump presidency (but more predictable). And a Democratic president won’t see the clock turn back to 2015. The past is gone.
As an example President Trump crippled the World Trade Organisation by refusing to agree to the appointment of appellate panelists who could make final rulings on trade disputes. It is notable that during the four years of President Biden, he also refused to appoint any – keeping the WTO as a eunuch.
Nationalism is not just confined to the United States. Nine of the 12 largest countries in Europe either have nationalist governments, or have nationalist parties leading in the polls. A common theme with nationalism is putting national interest ahead of global interest.
New Zealand is a minnow country. We do not have, and never will have, the economic or military might to defend our interests. Our protection in the past was the rules-based order.
However Australia is what people call a medium power. We are already highly integrated into Australia with CER. Culturally we are very alike, and we are basically cousins. I say it is time we upgrade from cousins to siblings.
A combined Australia and New Zealand would have the following characteristics.
A population of 33 million, taking us from 122nd most populous country to 47th.
An economy of US$2 trillion (NZ$3.3 trillion) GDP, taking us from the 53rd largest economy to the 12th largest. We would be part of an economy larger than Spain, South Korea and Turkey.
The combined defence force would have 70,000 active personnel and 35,000 reserves – around half as large as the United Kingdom’s. The defence budget of US$35 billion (NZD$58b) would be the 11th largest in the world – larger than Canada, Poland and Israel.
It is important to note that as a state of Australia we would still run our health and education systems. We would still be responsible for our roads and public transport systems. We would also still have our own New Zealand Police Force.
Ninety-nine per cent of New Zealanders would pay less tax. Over time our incomes would rise to compete with the other Australian states.
We would get to elect 12 out of 88 Senators. We would elect 28 out of 176 federal MPs. I suspect over time quite a few prime ministers would get to come from our state. It would be easy to have imagined Rob Muldoon, John Key or Jacinda Ardern winning federal office.
We would also still elect our own premier and state parliament.
In this new era where the rules-based order has ruptured, we need to be bigger to survive. There are no other two countries on Earth which get on as well and have so much in common as New Zealand and Australia.
Joining Australia will protect New Zealand, enhance Australia and benefit us all.
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