Coalition ahead in latest poll, National and Labour down

Monday, 16 February 2026

The latest political poll suggests the Coalition Government can return to power, while support drops for both National and Labour.

The 1News Verian Poll had National down 2% to 34%, while the Labour Party dropped 3% to 32%.

The Green Party saw the biggest increase, jumping 4% to 11%, while NZ First is up 1% to 10%, ACT down 1% to 8%, Te Pāti Māori up 1% to 2% and the The Opportunity Party up 1% to 1%.

Translated to seats, it would give National (42), NZ First (12) and ACT (11). The coalition Government would secure 65 seats, well over the number needed to return to power, compared to Labour (39), the Green Party (14) and Te Pāti Māori (6), which combined to 59.

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The TVNZ poll followed National’s announcement to build an LNG terminal through a levy, sparking backlash from Labour that it was instead a levy.

The unemployment rate rose to 5.4%, the highest its been since 2015, with 165,000 without work.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon are neck in neck to be most preferred Prime Minister, with both leaders holding 20% - Luxon seeing a 3% drop while Hipkins rose 1%.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters sits at 10%, while Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick sits at 5%, ACT leader David Seymour 4% and Nicola Willis 1%.

The party vote polling showed:

• Labour: 32% (-3%)

• National: 34% (-2%)

• Greens: 11% (+4%)

• NZ First: 10% (+1%)

• ACT: 8% (-1%)

• Te Pāti Māori: 2% (+1%)