When emergencies become the new normal

Friday, 20 February 2026

ANALYSIS: Saturday was Ōtorohanga and Waipa, in the Waikato region. Sunday was the whole of Manawatū-Whanganui.

On Tuesday, it was Canterbury’s turn, with rain-lashed Banks Peninsula slapped with the tag.

In just the first two months of this year, nine states of emergency have been declared across Aotearoa - one more than in the whole of 2025.

So is emergency the new norm? Or has the threshold dropped for invoking extraordinary emergency powers?

Is emergency the new norm?

The National Emergency Management Agency’s (NEMA) record of every state of emergency since 2002 shows three times as many emergencies were declared from 2016-2025, as in the previous decade.

2012 and 2014 sailed by with no states of emergency at all.

It’s not an exact science, as one mega-storm or earthquake can trigger states of emergency across several regions, or several districts within a region. So more declarations doesn’t necessarily mean more frequent appalling weather. (Though it does suggest more widespread impact).

But the trend is clear - states of emergency are on the up. And flooding and severe weather accounted for 104 of the 128 declarations since 2002.

More difficult to unpick is what’s driving that. Is it climate change brewing more powerful and more frequent storms? Or are emergencies being more readily declared, either in case they’re needed, or as a red flag to the public to be prepared?

That would make sense in the wake of the critical inquiry into the civil defence response to the devastating 2023 Auckland Anniversary and Cyclone Gabrielle storms, which found warnings were received too late, or not at all; co-ordination was lacking; and the emergency management system overall was “not fit-for-purpose”.

NEMA chief science adviser, Thomas Wilson, thinks the surge in declarations is due to both worsening weather, and a desire to be armed in advance, rather than being left scrambling once rivers are already pushing across plains or turning streets into streams.

“It’s a combination of both. There is no doubt that severe weather events are increasing both in frequency and severity – so we are seeing more events, and they are lasting longer.'

Canterbury Civil Defence Emergency Management Group Controller, James Thompson, agrees.

“I think it’s a bit of both. We’re certainly seeing emergencies - particularly weather event emergencies that are more impactful - more frequently.

“When we look at the last few years, particularly since the Auckland anniversary flooding and Cyclone Gabrielle, my feel would be, through January, February, March - particularly if we’re in a La Nina year, we will probably see extra tropical cyclones and lows coming down and impacting on New Zealand.”

The emergency hotspots

On Wednesday morning, the Christchurch emergency war room was back online, with some 20 intelligence, logistics, welfare, and recovery people gathered around the table swapping intel and making plans.

“They’re sharing information about … what do I know, what am I doing, and what I don’t know or what I’m worried about,” says Thompson. “When you hear that in a whole room, you start to get a pretty good picture of what’s happening out in the community.“

A state of emergency was declared in Banks Peninsula at midday on Tuesday, after 300mm of rain fell in 36 hours, turning the town of Little River into an actual river.

That was the 24th state of emergency declared in the Canterbury region since 2002, making it the official emergency hotspot. They’re followed by the West Coast, Waikato and Otago, each with 12 declarations.

Cantabrians also had the most days under a state of emergency, at 124 (not including nationwide emergencies). Of those, 41 relate to the 2010 and 2011 Christchurch earthquakes, and the 2016 Kaikōura quake. And some of those days overlap, as emergencies can be declared in multiple districts at once.

To declare or not to declare?

States of emergency can be declared at a national, regional or district level, depending on the severity and spread of impact.

National emergencies have only been declared for the fatal February 2011 Christchurch earthquake, the Covid-19 pandemic, and Cyclone Gabrielle.

The event has to fit the definition of “emergency” in the soon-to-be-replaced 2002 Civil Defence Emergency Management Act .That means it has to risk loss of life, injury, illness or distress, and needs a co-ordinated response.

It’s that need for co-ordination that often triggers a state of emergency to be declared, says Thompson.

But it can also be the need for the extraordinary powers the act bestows on local controllers and cops, he says.

That’s everything from requisitioning people or equipment, to mandatory evacuations, where the police can arrest people if they refuse to leave.

Thompson says that’s one reason to treat emergency declarations with care.

“There’s quite a range of powers there that you would almost call…on the point of being undemocratic, in the sense that one person is able to make those decisions and require them to carry it out.”

The other downside is the risk of crying wolf - if you declare an emergency in anticipation of an event, and nothing much happens, there’s a danger that next time people ignore the warning.

The whole of the Bay of Plenty region was put into a precautionary state of emergency on January 21, in the face of a red heavy rain warning.

That clearly wasn’t a case of crying wolf, as eight people died in two fatal landslides, after a slope of the Mauao at Mt Maunganui collapsed onto the campsite below, and a house was taken out in a slip at Welcome Bay.

Whether the campsite should have been evacuated is being investigated, following criticisms multiple early warning signs were ignored.

However, the state of emergency was important for the response, Bay of Plenty Civil Defence says.

The extra powers allowed staff to close roads or public places, do earthworks to stabilise the fatal landslides, remove or secure dangerous structures and provide first aid or shelter.

Even if some districts are unaffected by a disaster, they might still be included in a state of emergency, as that means the struggling areas can call in help, a Bay of Plenty spokesperson says.

“The aim for the Emergency Co-ordination Centre is to bring order to the potential chaos, by keeping a ‘balcony view’ on all that is going on in the rohe, orchestrating and co-ordinating response activities, identifying gaps and risks, asking for national help from NEMA and central government.”

As well as the huge toll of emergencies on those who lose homes and loved ones, the quick-fire responses take a toll on the organisations involved.

Because the work won’t stop when the streets of Little River have finally drained and dried, Thompson says.

“Our smaller territorial authorities might only have one professional staff member, so then we rely on council staff, sometimes people from the private sector, our emergency service partners.

“When we have continuous, regular events, our business-as-usual work doesn’t get done.”

And that means less time to plan for the inevitable next one.

“We are seeing a change in climate, and it is indicating that we are going to have to respond more often to more unpredictable events.”