Iranians celebrate and mourn attacks as expert says regime change unlikely

Sunday, 1 March 2026

Iranian-New Zealanders have expressed their joy, relief, anger and fear following major air strikes against their homeland that have left the Middle East in turmoil.

The US and Israel launched the attack on Saturday, with strikes in the capital Tehran as well as the cities of Isfahan, Qom and several other regions, leaving hundreds dead.

Iran responded with retaliatory strikes in Israel, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

Leila Dadian, who has lived in Christchurch for 13 years, said the attacks and death of the Iranian regime’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was something to celebrate.

“We have wanted this change for many, many years. From what I can see from media reports and videos, people were dancing in the streets despite the dangers … and when they heard Khamenei was dead they were chanting, there was music.”

Dadian met with about 50 compatriots at Christchurch’s South City Mall on Sunday afternoon, ahead of a car rally, for their own celebrations.

Waving Iranian flags, the group hugged one another and joined in dancing, clapping, and singing, while others burned pictures of Khamenei.

Dadian said she and her friends wanted Iran to be a secular, democratic country and former leader Reza Pahlavi to be reinstated to lead a transitional government before fresh elections.

They did not support retaliatory attacks by Iran.

“We are not happy about that, we don’t want anyone to be killed or endangered by the regime, but it’s not in our hands. We are the victim of the regime as well.”

Another Iranian in Christchurch, Donna Miles – a regular contributor to The Press – described herself as “anti-regime and anti-war”.

“The fact of the matter is that this is an illegal war. There’s absolutely no justification under international law for this war, and this is not going to benefit anyone.”

The attacks had heightened existing divisions within the Iranian community, both inside and outside the country, Miles said.

She was distressed by reports by the BBC and other media of a girls’ school in southern Iran being bombed by the US and Israel, with the death toll reaching 115 students on Sunday afternoon.

“There is absolutely no one that can convince me that anyone will be dancing about what’s happening to those girls and the possibility that this could come at their doorstep.”

Miles said she thought there was “very little possibility” the attacks would lead to a regime change that would “lead the sort of democratic path that Iranians aspire to … because we look to the experience of Iraq and Syria and Afghanistan and we understand that things can get worse”.

Iranian barrister Samira Taghavi, who is based in Auckland and worked as a human rights lawyer in Iran, said she, along with many other Iranians, were thrilled that US president Donald Trump had given up on negotiations.

“We know – we have lived under that regime. There is no diplomacy when it comes to the Islamic Republic of Iran, unfortunately.”

Unlike Miles, Taghavi, who attended a rally in Auckland’s Cornwall Park on Sunday, said she believed the attacks would result in regime change.

“This is the only way for Iranian people to be able to get rid of the current regime. There is no other way, there is no other alternative.”

Taghavi said the Israeli-US strikes had been very targeted and claimed the regime was responsible for the bombing of the girls’ school. There has been no evidence to suggest that is the case.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Minster of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters on Sunday said New Zealand had consistently condemned Iran’s destabilising force in the region, its nuclear programme and repression of Iranians.

“In this context, we acknowledge that the actions taken overnight by the US and Israel were designed to prevent Iran from continuing to threaten international peace and security.”

Their statement condemned Iran’s indiscriminate retaliatory attacks in the region and called for a resumption of negotiations and adherence to international law.

“We urge the Iranian leadership to seek a negotiated solution that returns Iran to the community of nations.”

University of Otago Professor of International Relations Robert Patman said the attack was a clear breach of the UN Charter which says that countries can only use force to defend themselves.

“The United States was engaged in negotiations and it broke off those negotiations. They were scheduled to go on next week, but the United States then attacked Iran.”

Patman said it was important for New Zealand to be even-handed in its response.

“For a country like New Zealand, which critically depends on a rules-based international order, you cannot simply turn a blind eye when countries break the rules, and unfortunately the United States, not for the first time in the post-Cold War era, has clearly broken the rules.”

If there was an escalation of civilian casualties in Iran, Patman said the attacks could unite Iranians against the aggressors.

“Many Iranians have deep memories of the Americans overthrowing their democratically-elected government in 1953, and replacing it with the Shah of Iran, so, Mr Trump is in danger of actually boosting the clerical regime in Tehran at a time when it was facing considerable domestic problems.”