Capital Crossroads: Wellington’s population problem
Saturday, 21 March 2026
Capital Crossroads is a four-part series examining the pressures facing Wellington – and what it will take for the capital to thrive again.
Wellington has reached a crossroads and the question now is whether the capital can attract the people it needs to thrive.
A weak labour market, job losses, low population growth and a sluggish housing market are colliding with rising living costs and ongoing infrastructure headaches – raising uncomfortable questions about the capital’s future.
So what would make people choose Wellington?
Read more:
Capital Conversation: Ailing Wellington needs more than frothy talk
What Wellington wants: A safer, cheaper, more vibrant capital
International artist and designer Todd Atticus has returned to Wellington over and over since the first time he came here from the UK. He has lived in London, Brighton and Madrid.
Initially he was in Auckland but felt it wasn’t the city for him.
“I heard Wellington was creative, fun and vibrant and decided to give it a go.”
Without knowing a single person, and with very little money he said he found the most vibrant and interesting place he had ever lived.
Atticus said the size of the city allowed you to make connections, despite not knowing anyone.
“You can descend from the hills into the bowl of the city and there’s politics, music, art. It’s a melting pot.”
The connections are clearly what he loves about the city.
“It’s no secret that in the last 12 months Wellington hasn’t been doing well but it hasn’t lost it’s mojo,” he said.
Atticus, who has an exhibition running at Supergood, said Wellington needed to celebrate itself.
Sharon Henderson, founder of marketing, advertising and communications firm Federation, has faith in Wellington and it shows in the opening of their new Wellington office in the CBD.
She’s enthusiastic about it. Wellington was where Federation, as a start-up, got its big break with its first client, Meridian Energy.
“We look at Wellington as a market where it has felt the pain of the economic recession probably more keenly than other markets.”
Henderson said they were ready to make an investment to return to where their success began, with an actual office in Wellington.
“And with that commitment to say we’re here, that we’re here for the long haul to actually boost growth and have a real show of faith in Wellington.”
What’s happening with the population?
Cities live or die by their people.
Wellington City’s population currently sits at about 210,800, while the wider region has more than 430,000 residents. For years the expectation was those numbers would keep climbing, with projections suggesting the city could reach about 240,000 residents over the coming decades.
But after the 2023 Census, those projections were dramatically revised.
Wellington City Council and economic consultancy Sense Partners had predicted a much higher population growth, but last year revised their projections. Population growth is forecast to be fewer than 800 additional residents between 2025 and 2030.
Their report said the city’s population growth had proven highly sensitive to economic shocks. Among the factors reshaping the forecasts are updated census data, record international departures, low birth rates and the lingering effects of Covid – particularly on younger people who traditionally move to the capital.
The fastest growing demographic of the population will be the age range 65+ expected to rise from 10% to 15% of the total population by 2054.
And there were high international departures - 123,000 nationally in 2025 - have significantly slowed net migration.
All that makes for quite the course correction.
Former Wellington mayor and Dot Loves Data director Justin Lester said job losses in the capital were already pushing people out.
Wellington has long been a public-sector town, with government roles making up a good proportion of all jobs in the city. Estimates suggest around 10,000 roles have been cut across the public sector.
“Up to mid-2023 the labour market was booming,” Lester said.
“There was robust spending, lots of contractor roles and it flowed through to the private sector.”
But that has now come to a crashing halt.
Wellington also faces a physical constraint – land.
“Wellington is pretty well built out,” Lester said.
Statistics NZ population estimates showed growth across the Wellington region to 2053, but it varied notably between metropolitan areas and the Wairarapa districts.
Lester said Wellington City was projected to experience the slowest growth, increasing by approximately 10% by 2053, reflecting the constraints of a largely built-out urban environment between the harbour and the hills.
“Future growth is likely to occur through intensification, with only limited outward expansion in greenfield locations like Stebbings Valley, Grenada, Grenada North, Woodridge and Horokiwi.”
Moderate growth - about 14 % is projected for Kāpiti Coast District and Porirua City. Slightly stronger growth in the Hutt Valley, with both Upper Hutt and Hutt City expected to grow by about 16% by 20253.
“These higher growth rates reflect increasing demand for more affordable housing and lifestyle living outside the main Wellington metropolitan area. This is aided by improved roads and train commuter routes, and changing work patterns since Covid that enable people to work from home and commute into the office less regularly,” Lester said.
Growth is increasingly limited to apartment developments, something that often faces community resistance.
“It’s difficult to grow in Wellington unless it’s apartments.”
Recent population data already reflects the shift.
In 2022, Wellington lost 2300 residents in the year to June – the biggest population drop of any city in the country.
Infometrics figures show the Wellington region’s population was 543,400 in 2025, unchanged from the previous year. Over the same period, New Zealand’s population grew by 0.7%, while Wellington City declined by 0.4%.
Statistics NZ projections still show growth in the region through to 2053, but it is uneven.
Wellington City is expected to see the slowest growth – around 10% over the next three decades – while surrounding districts such as Upper Hutt, Lower Hutt and Kāpiti Coast are expected to grow faster as people seek more affordable housing and lifestyle options.
Does Wellington have an image problem?
For futurist Chris Wilkinson, of First Retail Group, Wellington faces a perception challenge.
“The more negative things we say about the city, the more people start believing them,” he said.
Wellington was also feeling the effects of a broader shift away from dense urban living that accelerated during Covid.
Flexible working meant people could live further from major centres while still holding city-based jobs. It’s having impacts everywhere, including on our public transport.
“With work from home you can live somewhere with space, grow your own food, have more of that lifestyle,” Wilkinson said.
“That’s not just a Wellington issue – it’s global.”
He said with things like flexible working and increased opportunities neighbouring districts, like Kāpiti – once seen as a sleepy retirement area – became aspirational.
But if people are choosing lifestyle elsewhere, Wellington has to offer something equally compelling.
Selling Wellington again
Massey University urban planning specialist Dr Imran Muhammad said Wellington needed to lean into its strengths.
The capital had natural advantages, including its waterfront, cultural institutions and a compact, walkable city centre.
But it had also become heavily dependent on public-sector jobs.
“When those jobs decline, the population moves,” Muhammad said.
To remain attractive, Wellington needed to position itself as New Zealand’s cultural and creative capital – and ensure there were jobs to match.
“All the ingredients are there, the museum, theatres, for a population that wants to walk, the waterfront,” he said.
“Now the city needs the opportunities.”
Lighthouse Financial Mortgage director Michael Vincent said some clients were cautious about relocating to the city.
“They’re asking whether Wellington is somewhere they want to invest their time and energy,” he said.
For Vincent, the question many people were quietly asking was simpler.
“Are they excited to build a life here? Are they excited to raise a family here?”
The Wellington of the 1990s and early 2000s was seen as vibrant, creative and full of energy, he said. Now, some felt the city was slowly losing that confidence.
So if the population is not growing, how many houses do we need? The council’s website says: “The city is growing – up to 30,000 new homes will be needed by 2043 – so we must take action, or the problem will worsen. Housing needs to be affordable if all Wellingtonians are to have safe, warm, dry homes that meet their needs.”
In the next part of Capital Crossroads we look at Wellington’s housing puzzle – and whether building homes is what the city actually needs.
Catch up on past series, Capital Crisis and Capital Conversation.