As fuel prices soar, Kiwis keep driving at all costs
Sunday, 5 April 2026
Past petrol price increases failed to get Kiwis out of their cars, and all indications are we are on repeat - with traffic numbers staying firm as hospitality and retailers feel the pain.
In the wake of the Iran war, households are spending about $65 a week more on fuel than they did last year, according to economist Shamubeel Eaqub.
Hospitality and retail will suffer, as traffic numbers bounce back - as they always have.
'When there's a price shock, generally speaking, people will adapt. People get used to the price and that effect fades. It’s kind of like, 'Oh my, 100 bucks!,' and then when that’s over, people go, 'Well, that’s what it costs.' '
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Petrol is 61% more expensive than it was seven years ago. In 2018, 91 octane averaged $2.12 per litre, on March 20 it was $3.11, and by March 31 it had climbed to $3.42.
But a Sunday Star-Times analysis of NZTA daily traffic flow data for every March since 2018 (apart from the Covid years) shows higher fuel prices have had no long-term impact on traffic numbers on key routes.
In March 2018, an average of 158,400 vehicles crossed the Auckland Harbour Bridge daily. In the first 20 days of March this year, the average was 168,400 - a 6.33% climb.
Petrol has gone up every year since 2018 and, even with the fuel crunch, traffic numbers are now higher across the bridge, on the Bombay Hills and on the Christchurch motorway.
As petrol hit record highs this month, so did the number of trips recorded.
That found (up until March 20):
Since 2018, the petrol price has increased by 46.7%, yet Auckland Harbour Bridge traffic has grown by 6.3%.
Christchurch has seen the most aggressive growth, with motorway volumes up 52.8% since 2018, largely driven by post-quake population shifts to satellite suburbs
Despite 91-octane petrol breaking the $3.10 barrier in March 2026, total vehicle movements at the key sites were at - or near - record highs.
There was zero evidence across millions of data points that petrol prices 'curtailed' travel. In fact, it showed that the more expensive petrol gets, the more New Zealanders seem to prioritise their mobility.
Eaqub argues if we are still driving, it’s because we must, and it's cannibalising the rest of people’s budgets, leaving them 'spending less on other things in the economy.'
“People will cut back on fresh food, take the treats out… that $65 is being spent on petrol, but not somewhere else.
“The kinds of things that people give up are… the bits of the margin that are discretionary … hospitality tends to be the first one,” and that can be as modest as the Friday night out, trips to cafes or takeaways.
When it comes to financial choices the 'freedom' of the open road seems to be the final stronghold for a Kiwi household. Before they stop driving, they will cut socialising and “nice to have food”.
“Everybody kind of delays decisions… appliances, yeah, right. Just delay it for a bit longer, just because of the fear.”
The Star-Times also analysed discretionary travel. In March traffic to and from the Coromandel rose, as it did through the Kawarau Gorge near Queenstown. So people are still choosing to make trips they don’t have to make.
Traffic on SH25A (Kopu-Hikuai) to the Coromandel was up 23.4% this March until the 20th, compared with a year earlier. Along the Kawarau Gorge, the increase was 15.9%.
Auckland/Wellington city counts are down 2.2% to 4.5%, Eaqub says.
But Harbour Bridge/Bombay Hills numbers are up 2.6% to 7.9%, with urban sprawl creating a new generation of “must drives”.
In rural areas there is no public transport in most places and farmers have no option but to use fuel.
'Provincial New Zealand really does rely on transport fuel; it's really critical. We just need a little bit of leadership here to say we are thinking about you and we have a plan.'
Automobile Association figures indicate a 10% rise in fuel price leads to a 1.5% blip in consumption. But it doesn’t last long, Kiwis are inclined to shrug their shoulders and keep driving.
While total 'vehicle kilometres travelled' is increasing, fuel use is trending down slightly. - attributed to a more efficient vehicle fleet and the slow but steady adoption of hybrids and EVs.
The Ministry of Transport’s Household Travel Survey (2024/25) shows that while trip numbers remained steady, the mean trip distance for car drivers increased to 10km.
As housing costs pushed people to live in places such as Pokeno, Huntly, Levin, Rangiora and out of cities such as Hamilton and Tauranga they went into 'forced car dependency,“ with longer drives to work.
In 2026, it could well be the 'need to move' is so critical to New Zealanders that fuel is now a must-have 'fixed utility,' like electricity and water.
Eaqub calls it 'budget cannibalisation,“ with every extra dollar spent on petrol drawn from another part of the household budget.