Luxon’s response woefully inadequate for this fractured moment

Saturday, 2 May 2026

Despite his own claims to the contrary, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has shown a lack of clarity on the United States and Israel’s war on Iran, Josie Pagani writes.

Josie Pagani is a commentator on current affairs and a regular opinion contributor. She works in geopolitics, aid and development, and governance.

OPINION: Christopher Luxon is not capable of leading New Zealand in dangerous times.

If news that he wanted to strongly support the US bombing in Iran, and was only stopped by Winston Peters and MFAT, doesn’t convince his caucus that he is now out of his depth, then they are no better than the lizard-lipped weaklings enabling the collapse of right wing parties across the world, and I think they are mostly better than that.

Luxon has shown us one of two truths about himself. Either he started off wanting to show more “explicit public support” for Trump’s war, but lost his nerve for a full-blooded defence, hence his word-shaped-air briefings to the media: “I couldn’t be any clearer,” having been anything but.

Lack of clarity comes from lack of conviction. His support for the war was skin deep.

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Or, he really did support the inflationary, destructive, unplanned, illegal, geopolitically infantile, growth-destroying, security-smashing quagmire started by the malignant narcissist in the White House, who continues to actively undermine the world order we in New Zealand depend on.

Both options find Luxon woefully inadequate for this fractured moment.

I don’t like saying that because he’s a decent man. I wanted him to be a good Prime Minister. The India trade deal is his win. But having the work ethic of a Prime Minister is not the same as having the character. The job requires tough calls and the courage to persuade people of the right path even if it makes you unpopular. It requires clear communication in times of danger.

Luxon didn’t just get it wrong, he actively wanted the wrong choice against advice.

Let’s look at this war again. It was obvious within hours of the first bombs that the war was illegal and had no clear objective.

No imminent attack coming from Iran, so no recall to “self-defence” under international law. No attempt to build a coalition with other countries. Negotiations were ongoing when Trump decided to wage this war of choice.

Without the approval of the Congress the war is illegal under US law too. The Wars Power Resolution requires that the president withdraw the US military from hostilities after 60 days unless Congress has officially declared war.

Today is 60 days since the start of the war, nearly 60 days since Luxon’s fumbled press conference.

Perhaps Luxon wanted to show his moral outrage at the Ayatollahs by supporting Trump, and didn’t think through the consequences of picking a side.

The counter-factuals should have given him pause.

If Trump had not walked away from the war in Ukraine, Russia would have been crushed, Putin incapable of supporting Iran, the Ayatollahs weakened, and the protesters strengthened.

“We have plenty of friends who have managed to articulate a clear position that did not give comfort to the Ayatollahs or support the illegal war against them,” writes Josie Pagani, including Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, left.

History may look back and see this war as a bigger blunder than Iraq. There is not a person alive today who is not impacted at the pump or the supermarket. We don’t know what comes next.

I’m gobsmacked at Luxon’s lack of understanding about where New Zealand’s interests lie. We have come this far as a small country by not picking sides. He wanted us to choose from day one, as if this was 1940 and we were off to fight the fascists.

Seventy years on, that old order has fallen apart. The US is not the dominant security partner it was. In January of this year the Danes started preparing for an American invasion. They had to contemplate shooting down American planes, killing American soldiers, or being killed by them.

Pause for a moment to take that in.

We need new allies to protect New Zealand’s interest. We can do that without breaking up with America, instead treat them like we do China. Trading partners, careful friends, but we don’t fight in their wars or share too much information.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared that Canada will not participate in the “offensive operations of Israel and the US, and it never will”. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said, “This is not our war, and we didn’t start it.” The Spanish prime minister refused to let the United States use bases for the beginning of the war.

We have plenty of friends who have managed to articulate a clear position that did not give comfort to the Ayatollahs or support the illegal war against them.

We have allies in our own region of the Pacific and Asia.

National may still hope it can limp back into government with Luxon as Prime Minister. They convince themselves that Labour may be ahead in the polls, but, to paraphrase UK Prime Minister Harold Wilson, “travel around the country stirring up apathy”.

They should know by now they can’t win with Luxon at the top.

Trump is scorning the rule of law internationally, and pulling apart trade agreements and security infrastructure on which we depend.

If you thought for a moment you could support that, you do not support New Zealand’s interest, and if you don’t support New Zealand’s interest you can’t be our prime minister.