As the temperature drops, so do house price expectations
Wednesday, 10 June 2026
Less than a third of New Zealanders now expect house prices to rise over the next year, a sharp drop from nearly half earlier in the year.
Trade Me Property’s winter property pulse found that 29% of the 2000 surveyed expected house prices to increase in the next year - down from 46% in March.
The number thinking that house prices will fall climbed from 6.5% to 16%.
Trade Me Property customer director Gavin Lloyd says the majority of respondents now expect prices to stay flat or fall.
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“In March, nearly half of those surveyed expected prices to rise, but by May that optimism faded to fewer than three in ten. This is the sharpest drop in some time.”
The national average asking price remained largely unchanged from a year ago, slipping just 0.2%, although it fell 2.5% between April and May to $833,800.
Lloyd said depending where you live - in the North or South Island, a main centre or more regionally - the data pointed to quite a different picture.
“That national number looks calm on the surface, but underneath it there’s real divergence.”
Southern and regional parts of the country continued to outperform, while Auckland and Wellington remained softer markets.
Despite growing scepticism about house price growth, more New Zealanders appear ready to enter the market.
The survey found active buyer intent — those planning to purchase within the next 12 months — increased by 6% compared with March. Meanwhile, the proportion of respondents not considering buying dropped by 7%.
Lloyd said lower price expectations may be encouraging some would-be purchasers to act.
“We saw a 6% increase in the number of those buyers actively planning to buy within the next year, we also saw a 7% drop in those respondents who were not thinking about buying, showing falling price expectations to be a trigger for buyer activity with some looking to make their move now, rather than waiting on the sideline.”
He said in March the top concern for buyers had been a lack of suitable properties but in May that number had dropped by half a percent - with the increasing cost of living edging up to take the top spot in buyers’ concerns.
On the selling side of the market, activity increased, with the number of people currently selling or planning to list within six months rising by 3%.
However, confidence among sellers weakened, with agreement that now is a good time to sell falling by nearly 5%.
“Listings on Trade Me Property remain strong, and naturally with more supply entering the market during a period of softening seller confidence, this places further downward pressure on price expectations,” Lloyd said.
“Price anxiety is showing itself to be a structural concern, not a seasonal one, with getting the right price the single most persistent worry for sellers across both March and May survey insights.”
The survey found first-home buyers made up a larger share of active buyers than in March, while the proportion of investors among active buyers declined slightly.