More wind, less rain: Strongest El Niño yet will leave parts of North Island vulnerable to wildfire

Thursday, 2 July 2026

Experts say the El Niño is set to further heat an already warming planet, causing extreme weather around the globe. This photo from last year shows a wildfire in Tongariro National Park.

The strongest El Niño yet will bring more wind to the capital and dry conditions for much of the North Island, meaning wildfire risk for parts of the country.

Earth Sciences New Zealand confirmed on Thursday that El Niño conditions have been reached in the tropical Pacific and are set to influence Aotearoa’s weather into 2027.

Experts say the El Niño, a natural warming cycle, is set to further heat an already warming planet, causing extreme weather around the globe.

And meteorologists say it will likely exceed the record El Niño that began in 1997, triggering billions of dollars in damage from heat waves, floods, droughts and wildfires.

The capital could face windier conditions when El Niño hits.

New Zealand can expect dry conditions in eastern and northern parts of the country, while the south and west of the South Island can expect more rain.

North Island

Looking at past El Niño events tells us that the northern half of the North Island could face an unusually dry spring.

However, Chris Brandolino, principal scientist for forecasting and media at Earth Sciences New Zealand, said when it comes to El Niño, the past didn’t always dictate the future.

“While we know the average outcome of El Niño … no El Niño is average — each comes with a unique set of climate characteristics and therefore can be expected to influence the weather differently.”

El Niño could mean greater chance of wildfires across the North island. Pictured is Tongariro National Park, where fire tore through nearly 3000 hectares in November 2025.

Keeping that in mind, the North Island will likely experience drier than usual conditions between July and September, particularly in the Wairarapa, and extending north of Taranaki and Hawke’s Bay.

It will also be windier than usual, especially in Wellington and Wairarapa.

Windy, dry and warm conditions can not only dry out vegetation and soil, but can topple branches and trees, creating fuel for fires.

Shana Gross, a fire ecologist at the Bioeconomy Science Institute, said while El Niño did not guarantee wildfires, the summer following the record 1997 El Niño was the worst year on record in terms of area burnt.

Gross said awareness was the key.

This chart showing fire season severity highlights our worst year on record for areas burnt: the 1998-1999, after the worst El Niño event on record in 1997.

“During these periods it is critical for the people to be aware of heightened fire danger and be cautious with activities to avoid ignitions.”

Veronica Clifford, senior technologist in Bioeconomy Science Institute’s Wildfire Research Team, said the north and east of both islands faced greater odds of experiencing severe fire danger.

Clifford said the effects of a strong El Niño can be seen as early as November and can linger into April.

Troy Baisden, co-president of the Association of Scientists and adjunct professor at Victoria University of Wellington, said that because this year’s El Niño was likely to be the strongest yet, all bets were off.

He pointed out that these conditions were exactly the type that would have benefited from assessment and modelling.

However, these teams had been “defunded and dispersed” thanks to successive Budgets and the end of the Deep South Challenge, which looked at the impacts of climate change.