New Zealand wants to turn a regional forum into a Pacific powerhouse

Thursday, 8 June 2023

The previously fractious Pacific Island Forum may transform into a centre of power in the region, as Pacific countries contend with the growing US-China rivalry and interests of European and Asian powers.

Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta has been speaking with other Pacific Island countries about developing the regional forum into something akin to Asean – a longstanding group of Southeast Asian countries that sets the course for their region’s security – with a focus on getting the major powers to support climate change efforts.

The forum was at risk of fracturing in 2021, when five Micronesia states threatened to withdraw over a dispute about the forum’s leadership. But, after an intense bout of diplomacy and an attempt by China to persuade 10 member states to sign a region-wide deal, the forum has a new sense of unity.

The Government has, alongside Australia, been emphasising the importance of Pacific “regionalism” in recent months.

Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, in Wellington on Wednesday, said the region needed to “collectively create our own stability” so Pacific countries would not “succumb to the temptation … who offers better, and who offers more”.

'New Zealand has done a lot and unfortunately, the rest of the region will have to co-operate as we collectively pursue a stable region. The Pacific has always been a theatre of conflict, in the past,” he said.

Mahuta attended a meeting of Pacific countries and South Korea in Seoul last week, intent on talking to her counterparts about seeking “alignment” of the interest being expressed in the region by South Korea, Japan, France, Germany, the US, and India.

This week, she said there was a “consolidation” among leaders that the interest of external countries should be channelled into the forum’s 2050 Blue Pacific strategy.

The strategy, agreed to by the forum’s 18 members, sets out the region’s goals and commitments in the coming decades on issues including economic development, ocean protection, and climate change.

“The Pacific leaders have got a very clear sense that with the level of contest in the Pacific region, they [are] certainly in a prime position … to address some action points, and the action points are clearly geared towards addressing climate change.”

Mahuta said the forum could have authority in the region akin to Asean’s “centrality' in South East Asia. Leaders of the forum will meet in the Cook Islands in November.

'It wouldn't surprise me at all if there are further, broader strategic conversations between the connection of Asean and the Pacific Island Forum, and what they might come together on, so that there's an Indo-Pacific prioritisation of interests,” she said.

Asean, the Association for Southeast Asian Nations, comprises 10 countries and was begun by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand in 1967 as an alliance against communism in the region.

It has since become the central decision-making body in the region, agreeing on how to manage security issues – such as the coup in Myanmar – and setting rules for free trade. Countries outside the region, including New Zealand, frequently defer to Asean “centrality”, the premise that no other external power supplants the grouping.

Dr Anna Powles, a Pacific security expert and senior lecturer at Massey University, recently advocated in a report for the forum to be modelled on Asean, to better manage geostrategic competition and facilitate dialogue between Pacific countries and external powers.

“There is an opportunity for partners such as New Zealand to support initiatives like this,' she said.

She said Rabuka, in his comments on Wednesday, appeared to be calling for “greater collective security, perhaps in the form of a collective security arrangement”.

“This speaks to concerns that the pursuit of security deals by external partners is disruptive and potentially undermines regional security priorities and architecture,” she said.

“Fiji appears to be balancing its security relationships although at the same time indicating a closer alignment with Fiji’s traditional Western partners.”

Rabuka said Fiji would sign a new “status of force” military agreement with New Zealand next week. Last month, Papua New Guinea signed a similar “status of force” agreement with the United States, promising greater access to US troops along with $45m for security.

Defence Minister Andrew Little said this agreement would give “standing permission” for New Zealand troops to be in Fiji, and work underneath Fijian military command. The agreement would not expand the number of New Zealand troops in Fiji, at this stage.

“I’m very keen for us to strengthen our relationship, our military relationship with Fiji, and indeed, across the Pacific Islands generally, for those countries that have a military capability.”