Labour slumps to new poll low but numbers offer some comfort

Thursday, 7 September 2023

On the campaign trail, Labour leader Chris Hipkins tickled a robot while visiting Auckland university’s engineering and robotics department.

Labour’s support has plunged to a six-year low, slipping to a level not seen since Jacinda Ardern’s leadership reinvigorated the party, a new poll shows.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll gives National a strong lead on 36%. Chris Hipkins’ party has a 26% vote share, down 24 points since the last election.

It places the Greens on 12%, ACT on 11%, and Te Pāti Māori on 3%.

NZ First inches past the threshold to enter Parliament without an electorate seat, on 6%.

But, Christopher Luxon can’t yet breathe a sigh of relief: if the poll result were replicated on election night it would deliver a hung Parliament.

These numbers give the right bloc 60 seats, to the left’s 53. NZ First would take seven seats – but Hipkins ruled out a post-election deal with NZ First late last month.

To ensure a comfortable majority – and avoid NZ First blocking legislation from the cross benches – Luxon would still need to strike a deal for support.

National’s leader has trod a fine line in recent weeks, reluctant to close the door to working with Peters, but stressing that voters should only tick blue if they want a change of Government.

Support for Hipkins’ party has ebbed throughout the year, according to public polls. However, Labour hasn’t recorded a vote share this low since July 2017, just before Ardern took the helm, transforming their electoral fortunes.

Field work was done before both parties launched their election campaigns, and the final day coincided with the unveiling of National’s tax package.

There is some comfort for the incumbent: Hipkins holds a small lead as preferred PM, on 45% to Luxon’s 43%. He is also the top choice amongst the majority (48%) of ‘’soft’’ voters.

National Party leader Christopher Luxon eats gelato in Christchurch’s Cashel Mall during a visit on Wednesday.

The research, which drilled down into voter intention and attitudes, and in-depth analysis of the numbers will be rolled out in The Post and Sunday Star-Times in coming days.

It shows the results aren’t yet baked in: around one-in-five voters are undecided or ‘’soft’’ in their voting intention.

However, if it is in with a shot of holding office, Labour needs to keep its base motivated. Expected voter turnout is higher for National supporters (97%) than Labour (91%).

Greens’ voters are the most motivated (99%), with Te Pāti Māori the least likely voters to turn out (87%).

Hipkins also faces some risk in Labour’s potential coalition arrangements. Labour-Greens partnering with Te Pāti Māori loses more support than National-ACT does partnering with NZ First.

Asked about outcomes, 47% said they would prefer a National/ACT coalition – and that fell to 46% when NZ First was added to the mix.

Of a Labour-Greens led-government, 40% said that was their preference – but that slid five points when Te Pāti Māori was included.

Freshwater Strategy, interviewed 1511 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18 + online, between August 28-30. The margin of error is approximately +/ - 3%.

“It takes a long time for trends to show up in polls, but we've seen a decline in the Labour vote since the start of the year,” strategist and Freshwater’s New Zealand collaborator, Tim Hurdle said.

“There was an initial optimism for Chippy but economic gloom and concern the country is off-track is being reflected in the numbers. In the last month, there has been somewhat of a change in the expectation that Labour could win,” Hurdle said.

“Therefore, its vote has started looking for options to mitigate or change the look of the Parliament, rather than to try and reinforce a declining Labour vote. That’s why you are seeing votes going to the Greens, NZ First and Te Pāti Māori.”

Freshwater director pollster Mike Turner – who has polled for Boris Johnson, Scott Morrison, Jeremy Corbyn and Liz Truss – said the outcome was “by no-means fixed”, and there was plenty of opportunity for Hipkins to snatch the lead back if he and Labour had a good campaign.

“Labour are down, but not out quite yet,” he said. “The election result remains uncertain while almost 300,000 Ardern 2020 supporters continue to make up their mind.

“If the campaign goes well for Labour and they come home for Hipkins, they could keep him in the Beehive. However, National lead Labour on fundamentals such as economic management and responding to crime, so Labour has their work cut out.”

The pollsters

Dr Mike Turner has polled for Boris Johnson, Scott Morrison, Jeremy Corbyn and now Liz Truss.

Dr Mike Turner set up Freshwater Strategy, focusing on public and government relations, as well as research, strategy and investment advisory last year. Freshwater provides polling to The Australian Financial Review in a non-commercial relationship.

Formerly with political consultancy CT Group, once known as Crosby Textor, he is one of the world’s top pollsters, with a history of working across the political spectrum, including for the British Conservative and Labour parties, the Liberal Democrats and UK Independence Party, and for the Liberals, National and Australian Labor, as well as National in New Zealand.

Tim Hurdle is Freshwater’s New Zealand collaborator. A former National staffer and campaign strategist who has worked in politics, diplomacy and the commercial sector in New Zealand and Australia, he is also a columnist for The Post.

Freshwater Strategy is a member and company partner of Britain’s Market Research Society , and Turner is a certified member, as well as a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society.

The polling was conducted in partnership with Freshwater Strategy, and funded from their marketing budget. The polling questions were requested by The Post, worked on by Freshwater Strategy, and then signed-off by both parties.