Who is winning the battle of Chris vs Chris?

Saturday, 9 September 2023

One down, five to go. The first week of the election campaign brought robots, thrilling jet boat rides, a lot of ice-cream and sausage rolls – and a handful of policies.

But there is just one real battle that is front and centre of this race: Chris v Chris.

And as a defensive Labour Party fights to win back an advantage over an increasingly confident National, a new poll shows a Chris Hipkins-centric campaign is their best shot at holding office on October 14.

Although Hipkins holds just a small lead as preferred Prime Minister (45% to Christopher Luxon’s 43%), a deeper dive into the numbers reveal National’s leader is still struggling to connect with the public.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll shows nearly half of voters (46%) have a favourable view of Hipkins. Luxon is well behind on 35%.

Overall, respondents had a net positive view of the parliamentary veteran, and a net neutral view of the former Air New Zealand boss.

It will come as a surprise to few that Hipkins is preferred PM among Labour (90%), and Greens (80%) supporters. The same is true for NZ First supporters (44%) – something of a blow to leader Winston Peters, who says he won’t work with his former coalition partner.

But what will give real heart to Labour strategists is that Hipkins is still the number one choice to lead amongst almost half of soft voters (48%). Startlingly, even one in nine National supporters (11%) say they would prefer Hipkins in the top job.

Only 23% of those ‘floating’ voters picked Luxon – with a decent chunk (29%) unsure.

Hipkins also held a lead among female (50%) and younger voters. Only 35% of women preferred Luxon. More than half of men (51%) registered support for Luxon – just 38% for his rival.

There are striking distinctions between age groups. Nearly half of the youngest voters (18-34) favour Hipkins (47% to 39%).

He has a narrow lead in the 35-54s (43% to 42%), but Luxon pips him among the over-55s, on 46% to Hipkins’ 44%.

Given the city bore the brunt of Covid-19 restrictions, locked down for almost four months in 2021, Auckland prefers Luxon (47% to 41%). The inverse is true across the rest of the country, with 6% choosing the incumbent, to Luxon’s 41%.

Despite Labour languishing at 26% to National’s 36% in the top line numbers, published by The Post on Wednesday, these numbers will be a real boost to the Red Team. There are still roughly 300,000 voters up for grabs.

For the next five weeks, the two men will traverse the country, allowing voters to see the would-be premiers stress-tested in uncontrolled environments, how they respond to challenges or tough questions, and learn more about the leader than the drip-fed dollops of information the campaign team wants us to know.

National was rejuvenated when Luxon took control a little under two years ago. Post-Covid-19 fatigue, cost-of-living pressures and crime eroded Labour’s lead.

But the resignation of Jacinda Ardern set a new direction for the incumbent, and Hipkins set about resetting the Government’s agenda with a bonfire of unpopular policies.

His ‘boy from the Hutt’ charisma also redefined the election race.

Although they share the same Christian name, the two men are very different. Despite being a career politician (he was a former Beehive staffer before being elected the MP for Remutaka in 2008), he has leaned into a suburban dad image.

Luxon’s background is solidly middle-class, but his business career made him wealthy. He came to politics after running the national flag-carrier, and with the endorsement of former Prime Minister John Key, was fast-tracked into the leadership after a tumultuous half-decade for the party.

His inexperience has often contrasted sharply with Hipkins, who is a polished parliamentarian. But the public have not embraced his frequent gaffes, commentary often dismisses him as inauthentic, and pundits believe he is the key reason why National’s vote share isn’t soaring higher.

As a result, much of Labour’s campaign centres on Hipkins – and hammering what it sees as their rivals’ biggest weakness: Luxon.

The poll shows Hipkins has small but important leads on key personality attributes. Hipkins is seen as ‘greener’ and more personable, but Luxon is seen as more decisive and fiscally responsible.

Crucially, Hipkins is also winning that battle among soft voters, scoring better than Luxon across all attributes, other than spending taxpayers’ money wisely. He leads Luxon on five of eight leadership attributes.

More respondents (42%) thought Hipkins would be most likely to reduce carbon emissions and improve the natural environment. That compared with 23% for Luxon – and more than a third (35%) unsure.

The same number (42%) believe Chippy would respond best to a national crisis or natural disaster. Luxon scored 36%.

Asked with whom they’d prefer to share a long car journey, 39% opted for the prime minister. The same number (30%) chose Luxon as were unsure.

Less than a third (30%) said Luxon would understand ‘what me and my family are going through best’ – 38% thought this statement best applied to Hipkins.

And 37% related best to Hipkins, with 33% picking the National leader.

However, Luxon came out on top (42%) when voters were asked who would make the right decisions for New Zealand, even when they are unpopular. Just over a third (34%) opted for Labour’s leader.

A majority (40%) trusted Luxon to make decisions most likely to improve their lives – only a third agreed that was true of Hipkins.

Almost half (48%) said Luxon would ensure that taxpayers’ money is spent wisely, compared with just 26% for Hipkins, whose government has come under fire for wasteful spending in the public service.

Freshwater Strategy pollster Mike Turner says the research shows the outcome is by no-means fixed and there is plenty of opportunity for Hipkins to snatch back the lead if he, and Labour, have a strong campaign.

“Half of all soft voters’ (50%) voted for Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party in 2020, and they have a remarkably high view of Ardern, and a very poor view of Luxon,” he said.

(That score is net negative of -35).

“It is easy to see ‘Ardern’s Softies’ sticking with what they know if Labour presents a Hipkins-led government as the only way to safeguard Ardern’s legacy, against the risk that her government’s achievements will be unpicked under Luxon-led National-ACT coalition.

“This Ardern’s Softies group is not a small bloc of voters, approximately 10%, or 290,000, likely to turn up on October 14.

“They may be hesitant now, but they are going to vote somewhere, so if the campaign goes well for Labour, focusses on the needs of this group, and reassures them, there are certainly conditions for a bit of a Labour comeback.”

However, even among this critical group, Labour are losing to National on the fundamentals: on running the country, keeping prices low, economic management and responding to crime. “So, they have their work cut out,” Turner warned.

The poll reveals Hipkins and Labour are more trusted than Luxon and National on only three of 13 issues: increasing welfare and benefits; reducing carbon emissions and protecting the environment; and improving education and training opportunities.

The Post on Friday revealed two-thirds of voters thought the country was heading in the wrong direction. “Relieving cost of living pressures” was also the number one issue for a massive 65% of voters.

New insights from the survey show National is more trusted on that top concern. Its largest lead is in crime. More contested are health, housing and education where Luxon’s party has a narrow lead.

Labour is most strongly trusted on the environment and welfare.

However, among the soft voter cohort, Labour is much more competitive on issue management, and is trusted more on housing, health and education. National’s lead on the cost of living also narrows among this group.

Their lead on jobs and roads is also less solid within this group.

Former National campaign strategist and Freshwater's New Zealand collaborator Tim Hurdle says there is “limited time to turn the ship around.”

“The leader has to focus on their strengths and try and neutralise the weaknesses. That's why a lot of focus on election campaigns goes on the leader. They have a chance to put the message to the people and try and drive that.

“National, however, shows the value of long term investment in building an issue through its success around crime, which has been reinforced by the blundering of the government's response to the issue.”

Trust and relatability is important to soft voters, Hurdle said. “They are unwilling to take a risk. That’s why we've seen so much activity from the likes of the CTU trying to undermine [Luxon’s] position with those voters.”

A blitz of billboard and social media attack ads, launched on Monday, were funded by the Council of Trade Unions. A controversial newspaper wraparound featuring a large portrait of Luxon was also headlined: “Out of touch. Too much risk.”

“Because there has been so much focus on National in the last nine months, those who are likely to want to vote for him have probably already decided. Those who are left are probably alienated voters who have been unwilling to go over to the blue team,” says Hurdle.

National has had a very consistent poll trend upwards, throughout the year. “But they haven't ever been in a situation where they've been over 40%. They are going to have to hold that vote – and that becomes a challenge.”

In Luxon’s favour is that the poll shows propensity to vote is weaker among the soft vote. “They are least likely to turn out, due to alienation with the government. Because the government is so prominent, they are unlikely to attract new voters at this late stage.”

Hustling for those votes in the hotly contested Ōhāriu electorate on Friday, Hipkins played up the large number of undecided voters. “There is a huge undecided vote out there at the moment. And that means that the campaign is going to be important,” he said.

“All of the polling companies will tell you that. There's every reason to get out there and campaign hard.

“We know that there's a lot of people who haven't really tuned into the election campaign yet. It's only just getting under way.”

Luxon said he doesn’t get too focused on polls. “I met with over 10,000 voters in recent months on our ‘back on track’ tour and had really good engagement and enjoyed the interaction with many New Zealanders.”

As for the soft voters? “They can trust me because they know that I'm going to get things done, sorted, turned around and the country back on track.”

With election day in sight, he can only hope the same is true of his personal approval ratings.

Freshwater Strategy, interviewed 1511 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18 + online, between August 28-30. The margin of error is approximately +/ - 3%.