Warning signs for NZ First in ‘pretty negative’ survey results

Sunday, 1 October 2023

Five candidates from NZ First, the Green Party, Labour, National and Te Pāti Māori join The Post's national affairs editor, Andrea Vance, to debate ocean policy.

National voters mostly dislike New Zealand First, new survey results show, in a warning sign of the difficulties Christopher Luxon could face building a coalition with Winston Peters.

The Politics and (Mental) Health State of the Nation Survey - which the Sunday Star-Times is asking readers to take part in - is shedding light on Aotearoa’s political habits and attitudes.

Several thousand people have already taken part and, with Victoria University researchers crunching the numbers, early results show it’s not good news for some politicians.

“On average, respondents are pretty negative about most of the parties,” says psychologist Marc Wilson, who designed the study.

“Christopher Luxon has a tough decision on his hands because NZ First is the least liked of the Big Six parties – prospective National voters, on average, say they feel negative about NZ First. But not as negative about NZ First as prospective NZ First voters are about National!

NZ First leader Winston Peters speaks to party faithful at Te Rapa Racecourse in Hamilton.

“The main thing about NZ First voters is that they really dislike everyone else. What does it mean for the post-election courtship that the people who vote for NZ First don't like either National or Labour? At the same time, they do dislike National less than they dislike Labour.”

Beyond the Big Six - National, Labour, Greens, ACT, NZ First, and Te Pāti Māori - most minor parties are struggling for recognition, Wilson says. He suspects that the timing of Brian Tamaki’s protest roadtrip to Parliament this week wasn’t accidental; 40% of survey respondents have never heard of Vision NZ, the party led by Hannah Tamaki, while 19% have never heard of Freedoms NZ, the umbrella coalition that encompasses Vision NZ.

Marc Wilson is a professor of psychology at Victoria University Wellington.

“That said, the Tamakis are better off than most of the minnows,” says Wilson. “More than half of respondents hadn’t heard of New Zeal, the Leighton Baker Party, New Nation Party, New Zealand Loyal, Democratic Alliance, and the Women’s Rights Party.”

The Opportunities Party, meanwhile, has solid recognition and a positive reputation, but “just not quite enough people to wiggle the 5% threshold”.

Two thirds of Kiwis (63%) say their personal lives are going in the right direction, but a sizeable half (49%) say the country is going in the wrong direction. And, Wilson says, NZ First voters are much more gloomy overall.

“They’re almost twice as likely to say their lives are going wrong, and four times less likely to say the country is going right, than the average participant.”

In another twist, NZ First supporters report more nightmares than other voters, on average, although Wilson cautions that it's not statistically significant.

“Nightmares are actually quite an important experience in the context of wellbeing,” says Wilson.

“Nightmares can be both a predictor of mental distress and a symptom of it. Unsurprisingly, people who report frequent nightmares also report poorer quality sleep in general.”

Sunday October 1 is your last chance to participate in The Politics and (Mental) Health State of the Nation Survey. Take it here.