How the Greens’ new strategy won over Wellingtonians on the doorstep

Tuesday, 24 October 2023

Tamatha Paul celebrates with volunteers after winning Wellington Central, where volunteers had 8000 doorstep conversations with voters.

Sunny South Brisbane is a world away from windy Wellington, but the Greens have proven their Australian electorate strategy can win seats on both sides of the ditch.

On election night, presumptive Wellington Central MP Tamatha Paul didn’t seem as surprised as you might expect for someone who had won just the third-ever Green electorate seat, with a margin of 3000 votes.

“We ran such a strong party campaign, the biggest Green campaign in our history. A lot of hard work has gone into this moment,” she said, when asked whether she had expected the win.

Behind closed doors, the party had been running a model based on 8000 door-knocking interactions, which showed Paul winning the seat with 38.7% of the vote. It was just 0.2% off. On preliminary results, she won with 38.5%.

Field director James Temple ‒ an Australian who came over for the election, bringing a new electorate strategy and model with him ‒ said the Greens were quietly confident about winning Wellington Central and Rongotai, even though the bid for multiple electorates was new.

Temple described the imported door-knocking technique as “a social work style” of approaching people. The strategy proved its worth at last year’s Australian federal election, where the Australian Greens flipped three Labour strongholds in Brisbane.

The idea is to go in with broad, everyday questions. Volunteers avoid talking about the election at first and ask residents about their problems, offering policies as a solution ‒ which made tangible policy offers like free dental particularly effective.

Tamatha Paul and Julie Anne Genter hug on election night, after winning two neighbouring electorates. (File photo)

“It’s connecting politics to their real lives, their everyday lives,” Temple said.

Around 700 volunteers, 40,000 door knocks, and 11,000 doorstep conversations were behind the effort to win the two Wellington electorates.

Julie Anne Genter credited the “best community” with building her successful Rongotai campaign, thanking volunteers who gave up their time every weekend. The party would be looking to “keep the flaxroots organising alive” between elections.

Paul said the effectiveness of the strategy showed the Greens had “people power”, which could even the playing field where other parties had money to spend on campaigns.

Regional councillor Thomas Nash, who was closely involved in Paul’s campaign, said the results surprised people outside the party but not those who understood the volume of contact with voters.

“Our game was actually talking to people. And that sounds a bit earnest and cheesy, but it’s true.”

Julie Anne Genter credited the hundreds of volunteers with driving her campaign forward even when she was out of town. (File photo)

While out door-knocking, volunteers did not wear Green merchandise because it lowered the answer rate, Temple said. “People see you coming and think, ‘I don’t wanna talk to someone in a bloody Greens shirt’.”

The party’s policy platform was designed to be easy to link to voters’ material concerns. A wealth tax, free dental, and renters’ rights were their most popular policies in Wellington Central.

The door-knockers collect data which is fed into the campaign machine. For undecided voters, the party will send a volunteer back in a few months with tailored talking points ‒ half of the undecided people who got this treatment told volunteers they had decided to vote Green.

The electorate strategy, tested out in Australia, saw volunteers approach voters with broad questions rather than pitching their party outright. (File photo)

Volunteers reached some properties (often the hilliest ones) in Hataitai and Karori where people had never been door-knocked before.

There was what Temple described as a “labourious internal governance process” before electorate campaigns were approved, because of the risk candidates would be seen as splitting the vote away from Labour.

The Greens knew they needed a disproportionately large campaign to win an electorate. “If we’re gonna have a crack we’re gonna have a real crack.”

Chlöe Swarbrick’s win in Auckland Central at the last election had put electorate wins within reach, but the campaign in Wellington was four times the size.

There had been a perception that electorate campaigns could detract from the party vote, which had been proven wrong at this election, Nash said.

On preliminary votes the Green party vote had increased by around 6% in the Wellington electorates.