No surprises in Port Waikato by-election result

Saturday, 25 November 2023

In one of the most low key by-elections in recent memory, National’s Andrew Bayly has won the Port Waikato seat left vacant after the death of another candidate during the election campaign.

With Labour and ACT declining to contest the seat, and only NZ First among parties from inside Parliament choosing to make a contest of it, the result was a near foregone conclusion.

With 90 per cent of the votes counted Bayly had an insurmountable lead of 10,924 votes.

Bayly already held the seat in the last Parliament, and was expected to be comfortably returned, but under electoral rules, a by-election was triggered by the death of ACT candidate Neil Christensen once voting had opened in the general election.

The by-election was triggered when ACT candidate for Port Waikato, Neil Christensen, died.

Because Bayly had already returned to Parliament as a list candidate, and will now vacate that list position to remain an electorate MP, the result opens the door to another National MP entering Parliament off the list.

That is likely to be second-time candidate Nancy Lu.

That will take the number of MPs in Parliament to 123, because there was already an overhang.

That will make it New Zealand’s biggest Parliament ever.

The NZ First candidate was Casey Costello, who, like Bayly, already has a seat in Parliament. She was number 3 on NZ First’s list.

Other candidates who stood represented DemocracyNZ, NewZeal, the Women’s Rights Party, the Animal Justice Party, Vision New Zealand and New Zealand Loyal. There was also one independent.

Labour decided not to contest it after declaring the seat unwinnable for a centre left party.

It has been held by National throughout its history.

More than 16,000 votes had been cast by the time voting closed at 7pm. Special votes were able to be cast in the two weeks before.

Bayly’s comprehensive win comes just a day after National concluded negotiations with ACT and NZ First to form a government. Ministers will be sworn in on Monday, including Bayly who was named Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs, Small Business and Manufacturing, and Statistics.