The Annual Report: From hero to zero ‒ how good is Luxon’s Cabinet a year in?

Saturday, 23 November 2024

Next week, the Government will officially turn a year old. Twelve months on, the Cabinet remains stable with just one change. But how have those ministers performed? The Post’s senior editors sat down to give a considered (but not too serious) report card on the Government’s Cabinet Ministers ‒ ranked out of 10. This is their Annual Report.

NATIONAL PARTY

Christopher Luxon

Score: 6

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has had a solid, but not spectacular first year. Relatively new to politics and succeeding a series of popular (Jacinda Ardern and John Key) and respected (Helen Clark and Bill English) prime ministers, he has come into a tough economic environment and with low approval ratings. On the management side, Luxon is doing a good job. Ministers are encouraged to make decisions and he keeps a close eye through his public service targets and quarterly plans.

But he has struggled to connect with the public, and slavishly sticks to talking points while berating Wellington for not being representative of New Zealand. His communication — a central part of any politician's tool box — remains rigid and under-developed. He can retreat to bromides and corporate speak under pressure.

Luxon has also had several missteps, including claiming a housing allowance he was entitled to, but was clearly going to be a perception problem. He hasn’t stamped his authority on under-performing ministers from coalition parties and is yet to find his feet in Treaty-related matters.

As PM he has been a frequent flyer, forming relationships across the region and taken a strongly values-based view on conflicts such as the war in Ukraine. The coalition has been stable, predictable and the polling of the Government in total, remarkably consistent. The next 12 months will test his range as a political practitioner.

Nicola Willis

Score: 6

Minister Finance, Public Service, Social Investment

Nicola Willis has the most difficult job in Government, coming in with promises to balance the books, get rid of waste and get spending under control. Her first Budget was a solid statement of intention, while not slashing and burning. Her public service cuts were brutal in Wellington but popular around the motu. The biggest question of her tenure remains the decision to axe the iRex Interislander project — a key piece of infrastructure — without a replacement plan. A strong messenger of the Government’s plans, she is now trying to turn the narrative away from cuts to one of growth. After one of the worst recessions in decades, the acid will be on Willis to implement a more aggressive agenda for growth than has been evident so far.

Chris Bishop

Score: 10

Minister Housing, Infrastructure, RMA Reform, Sport and Recreation

It's been a big year for the minister known by most as just “Bish”. His portfolios cut across just about all of the Government's big agendas and he has made significant decisions, while setting out an intellectual framework for them. He is across associate finance, infrastructure and is clearly intent on being the minister that cracks the decades-old riddle of New Zealand’s housing affordability. He has also shown a practical streak through both fast-track laws and underwriting housing development. He isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but for breadth, capability and as salesman for the Government’s agenda, he is hard to fault.

Shane Reti

Score: 3

Minister Health, Pacific Peoples

There were always suspicions within National that Shane Reti would struggle in health and he has done so. From trying to tamp down mischief-making leaked internal documents suggesting frontline doctors and nurses would need to be made redundant; to 14 layers of management that didn’t really exist.The sector continues to be underfunded, plagued with problems and the minister's approach seems to hinder more than it helps at times. A commissioner sent in to sort out governance. The problems in health aren’t of Reti’s making, but as a former creature of the system, it isn't clear he has the political wherewithal to be the solution either.

Simeon Brown

Score: 8

Minister Energy, Local Government, Transport

Love or loathe him, Simeon Brown has proven an effective, capable minister, maturing from being an opposition bomb thrower, to getting down to some tough decisions in energy, transport and local government. Regardless of what you think of National's roads-first policy, Brown is consistently on top of his brief and hasn’t been afraid to make decisions. Could dial down some of the anti-cyclist rhetoric though — just because roads are good, doesn’t mean cyclists are bad.

Erica Stanford

Score: 9

Minister Education, Immigration

One of the stand out performers in this Government. In education, Erica Stanford was tasked with lifting achievement. To do so, she hewed back to basics, while not bashing the unions or attacking teachers. Banning cellphones in schools is popular with parents, as is focus on basic skills. She’s starting to overhaul the shambles that is school property. And she has managed to do it all without seeming overly ideological. She has also done it while managing the government response to the abuse in care inquiry, a big-time commitment. Immigration system reform is still underdone and should be a focus in the new year.

Paul Goldsmith

Score: 7

Minister Arts, Culture and Heritage, Justice, Media and Communications, State Owned Enterprises, Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations

Paul Goldsmith, or Goldie as he is more commonly known, is one of the most well-liked ministers in Government and has mostly worked in areas where things tick along: the arts, state-owned enterprises and Treaty negotiations. He was SOE minister when the decision to effectively can the iRex ferry project happened, and is now juggling the fair bargaining media bill, balancing what media companies, punters and Google want. A member of Luxon’s inner circle.

Louise Upston

Score: 5

Minister Community and Voluntary Sector, Disability Issues, Social Development and Employment

The minister for social development and child poverty has kept a low profile. Her focus has been on benefits and welfare sanctions. But if benefit sanctions are the answer to rising unemployment caused by widespread job-losses and the worst recession in decades what on earth was the question? Diligent and hard-working, it will be interesting to see how she fares as unemployment continues to rise. Low score mostly on account of visibility.

Judith Collins

Score: 6.5

Attorney-General, Minister Defence, Digitising Government, GCSB/NZSIS, Science, Innovation and Technology, Space

A minister with a big workload, Judith Collins has kept defence and national security in a holding pattern. But with a defence capability review due in coming months she will be challenged to deliver on expectations of a big boost in defence spending. There are questions over her handling of the Manawanui sinking - months on the public is still in the dark. And her plan —largely inherited from the previous Government — to amalgamate the Government science sector seems a solution seeking a problem. Big backer of the space industry.

Mark Mitchell

Score: 8

Minister Police, Corrections, Emergency Management and Recovery

If recently departed Police Commissioner Andy Coster was known as the commissioner for cuddles, Mark Mitchell could be the minister for man-hugs - or, taken in a different direction, the member for Mike Hosking. Mitchell is one of the best National Party practitioners of retail politics in an area where it is needed most: cops and prisons. He talks tough, fronts up and has partial responsibility for the gang patch ban. But being tough on crime in rhetoric and sustaining it in practice isn’t going to be easy.

Todd McClay

Score: 8

Minister Agriculture, Forestry, Hunting and Fishing, Trade

Armed with one of the best heads of hair in politics, a hail-fellow-well-met attitude, and a brief to get trade deals done, Todd McClay has been travelling the world stitching them up. Two deals have been signed with the Middle East — including a significant one with the Gulf states — and he has been a frequent visitor to India, a target for a new trade treaty. He’s taken a fight to the Canadians over protectionist dairy policies. Frequently out of the country, he has done everything he’s been tasked with with minimal fuss.

Tama Potaka

Score: 6

Minister Conservation, Māori Crown Relations: Te Arawhiti, Māori Development, Whānau Ora

A fitness fanatic, Tama Potaka is still finding his political feet, winning his Hamilton West seat about a year before the election. He represents an often under-served part of the electorate: Māori National voters. Potaka has the enviable — and so far underutilised — skill of being able to blend te ao Māori with his centre-right political beliefs. In straitened economic times he is conservation minister, which is sharing in the Government cost cutting. He spoke convincingly about the importance of the recent hīkoi and explaining why National would vote down the Treaty Principles Bill.

Matt Doocey

Score: 6

Minister ACC, Mental Health, Tourism and Hospitality, Youth

The only South Island-based cabinet minister is affable, open and up front. He has a few niggly portfolios including ACC, tourism and particularly mental health. There isn’t enough money and a constant tension between under-resourced hospitals and programmes in the community. Unclear how much this has been confronted. Doocey also went against official advice in jacking up the international tourism tax by nearly 200% to $100.

Simon Watts

Score 6.5

Minister Climate Change, Revenue

The unassuming Simon Watts moved into Cabinet when Melissa Lee was demoted. In charge of revenue and climate change, Watts has kept the latter — a potentially difficult policy area for National — largely out of the news. He is also respected and considered a good listener within the sector. In revenue, he is working to modernise the tax system. Expect more from him in the coming year.

NZ FIRST

Winston Peters

Score: 8

Deputy Prime Minister, Minister Foreign Affairs, Racing

There are two Winston Peters: the domestic politician and the minister of the Crown. As foreign affairs minister he has excelled, pushing New Zealand’s interests and making sure the country was sufficiently hedged against any US election result. He is respected abroad and made significant efforts in the Pacific. Marked down for being generally anti-media when he first took office and for not yet sufficiently preparing the New Zealand public at large (as opposed to foreign affairs watchers) for what a world of heightened geo-strategic tension means for New Zealand. Peters leaves the job of deputy PM in May, which should be watched with interest.

Shane Jones

Score: 7

Minister Oceans and Fisheries, Regional Development, Resources

The reinvention of Shane Jones has been something to behold. He holds key portfolios across extractive industries, the regions and fisheries — and is associate finance minister. Along with the other resource ministers he has been one of the loudest proponents of New Zealand’s extractive industries. A showman, he tends towards being a bit too abrasive, taking great delight in denigrating both the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.

Casey Costello

Score: 0.5

Minister Customs, Seniors, Assoc Health, Immigration, Police

Casey Costello might be the minister for seniors and for customs, but one word sums up the former chairperson of the Taxpayers’ Union tenure as Associate Minister of Health: tobacco. Costello’s handling of the Government’s tobacco regulations, getting dodgy advice and granting a tax break has bogged down her tenure.

ACT

David Seymour

Score: 7

Minister Regulation, Assoc Education, Finance, Health, Justice

David Seymour was undoubtedly the most effective opposition MP in the 53rd Parliament. In government, he has been quite effective as ACT leader, but less positive for the Government overall. The Treaty Principles Bill is key for ACT but a distraction for the Government. The Budget made few of the real cuts desired by ACT. He set up the Ministry for Regulation charged with running a ruler over the quality of laws and regulations, but it hasn’t really got going yet. Charter schools are up and running and he is at the forefront of truancy and school lunches as associate education minister.

Brooke van Velden

Score: 6

Minister Internal Affairs, Workplace Relations and Safety

Brooke van Velden has kept a relatively low profile in her workplace relations portfolio. She led the repeal of Labour’s Fair Work Act and has been delivering for National and ACT business supporters in reviewing the role of WorkSafe, extending 90-day work trials and looking at the Holidays Act.

Nicole McKee

Score: 3

Minister Courts, Assoc Justice

Nicole McKee has had an inauspicious start as minister. Hard-working, sharp and sometimes seen knitting in the House, McKee was put in charge of the Government’s firearms reforms, having previously been a gun rights lobbyist, creating the whiff of conflict of interest. Her main achievement was toughening up the three strikes law.

Correction: An earlier version of this story said in the section on Shane Reti that Health NZ nurses had been told they were sacked. This was not correct.