Poll: What the public thinks of the Treaty Principles Bill, and how principles should be decided

Sunday, 15 December 2024

A new poll suggests 40% of voters oppose the Treaty Principles Bill, as opposed to 30% who support it. The rest are either undecided or unsure according to The Post/Freshwater Poll

But more people think the Treaty of Waitangi principles should be decided through a referendum, rather than by Parliament or the Courts.

The poll asked: ACT Leader David Seymour has proposed legislation that would reinterpret the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi. Do you support or oppose this legislation?

Forty per cent opposed the proposed legislation, 30% were in favour, while 17% were neutral on the topic and 13% were unsure.

The highly charged debate around the bill erupted last month at the bill’s first reading - Te Pāti Māori Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke leading a haka on the floor of the Debating Chamber. Shortly after, Parliament and the streets surrounding it bulged with thousands from the Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti protest march, estimated by police to be more than 40,000, opposing the bill.

As the hīkoi was getting started, the Justice Select Committee opened submissions on the Treaty Principles Bill. The bill is undergoing a six month select committee process, where members of the public can submit their view on the proposed legislation. The bill is likely to be voted down at its second reading.

Digging deeper into the numbers, men were more likely to support the legislation than women - 39% of men polled supported it, while 36% of men opposed. For women, 23% supported and 43% opposed.

Older New Zealanders were also more likely to be in favour than younger, 36% of those aged 55 and older supported the proposal, with 33% opposed. That decreased to 30% of those aged 35-54 being in support, going down to 24% of people aged 18-34.

Voters were also asked, ‘Do you think the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi should be defined by Parliament or the Courts, or through a referendum?

Seymour’s bill proposes, should it pass through Parliament, that it would only come into force if it was supported through a referendum of the public. “If a majority of electors voting in a referendum do not support the Bill, it will automatically be repealed,” the bill reads.

In The Post/Freshwater Poll, 40% answered that the principles should be defined through a referendum, 29% said it would be defined by Parliament or the Courts, and 31% of people were unsure.

Freshwater Strategy surveyed 1150 eligible New Zealand voters via online panels between November 26-27. The data is weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters and the margin of error is approximately ±3%.

Previously, Seymour told The Post, “when people are asked, do they agree with these specific principles, people support it by two to one, ultimately this legislation is about equal rights for all, when you put that question to people, overwhelming they support it”.

“Just the fact that 30% of people support just the name of the bill, I think is pretty positive.”

Regarding the question around whether principles should be defined through a referendum, or by Parliament and the Courts, and whether he calibrated his policy wrong, Seymour said, “what I think is important here is there is a solid group of New Zealanders who see through all the spin and say this bill is about equal rights”.

A recent 1News Verian Poll asked if people supported or opposed the Treaty Principles Bill, or if they did not know enough to say.

Twenty three per cent supported the bill, 36% opposed and 39% did not know enough about the bill.