Second time’s the charm for would-be mayoral candidates?

Saturday, 1 February 2025

With Donald Trump installed in the White House for a second time and now two former mayors signalling a return to politics … is 2025 the year of the political comeback? Andrea Vance reports.

Justin Lester isn’t running. Well … probably not.

The former mayor and councillor has set Labour hearts fluttering with speculation that he’s considering another run at Wellington’s top job in this year’s local body elections

First, the take-away chain mogul began popping up last year as a commentator as town hall politics made national headlines. Could he be, the capital’s chattering classes started wondering.

Then he launched a social media campaign, rebranding his Facebook page to promote city businesses and events.

The spirits of left-leaning residents soared. This was the answer to Labour’s problems — a tested and experienced candidate to retake the city from the Greens, and put the party on track to seize back Wellington Central (assuming it still exists after boundary changes) and Rongotai at next year’s central government elections.

“We’ve scraped the bottom of the barrel and found nothing else,” a downcast Labour source said. “Basically there are only a few who could do the job, and they've all said no. So Justin is last chance saloon.”

Except, Lester doesn’t want the job either. At least he says he doesn’t.

“It’s not my intention,” he said this week. “My priorities, family, enjoying my private life and my private job and my kids are at an age that I want to be at home with them.” Wife Liz is especially resistant to see him return to public life.

But a former politician launching “an organic community-based” social media campaign? One that’s been run by a professional creative agency? Pull the other one…

Lester says volunteers and 2x Studios founder Hannah Whybird genuinely are working for free. Whybird’s sister Brooke works with Lester at tech firm Dot Loves Data and they’ve given her office space.

The campaign will help her business, as well as give a positive platform to promote local businesses, he explains.

“Through this, you can build a brand, establish a business. You can create content for people. Then you can provide the services to those people, and then you've got a platform for them to put it on … she'll use that to build up revenues, and then she can transition full time, and she'll have a business to run.”

Ah, so not entirely altruistic. But not politicking. So why not definitely rule out a run? After all, Lester is not new to the media game and knows an emphatic no would put an end to all the talk.

“Never say never,” he said. “If I asked you would you still be working at Stuff in October, what would you say?”

Fingers crossed. A bit like Labour supporters. A well-placed source points out October’s election is still some time away. “Bags of time … a lot can happen over the course of a year.”

Andy Foster, who beat Lester in a shock result in 2019, didn’t announce until August.

Former deputy and MP Paul Eagle kept his powder dry until June 2022.

“Maybe he just likes the attention. Maybe he likes the idea of running, but doesn’t actually like what it would take to run. Maybe he just wants to convince himself that he could have had a run?,” the Labour source muses.

However, a former colleague of Lester believes it’s not council office he is interested in, but another destination further down the Terrace.

Pointing to a recent move from Johnsonville into Karori, in the Wellington Central electorate, they suggested he could be shaping up for a run for Parliament in the high profile seat that was lost to former councillor Tamatha Paul in 2023.

Before he lost the mayoralty, Lester was considered to be on a trajectory to central politics that included the Ōhāriu electorate and a finance portfolio.

Defeat saw him fall out of favour. Then-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern appeared to distance herself by incorrectly stating that he had run the 2019 election as an independent. (She later apologised.) And a senior party figure embarrassingly kept calling him Julian at public events.

His lacklustre campaign is still a sore subject for members. “He was quite complacent. He didn't think there was any chance of losing,” the Labour source says.

One factor holding Lester back is his friendship with current mayor Tory Whanau.

Despite a torrid first term, that saw the Government intervene and install observer Lindsay McKenzie, Whanau says she wants to come back for more.

“I'm running for mayor and I will be seeking the Green endorsement,” she told The Post.

“As far as I'm concerned, Labour have done a bit of a scope around and they can't find any candidates.”

While Lester is “aware of the limitations of her mayoralty”, friends say it is unlikely he would declare while she is still in the race.

“I'd be surprised if he ran against Tory. I think part of it might be that he's waiting to see what she does,” one said.

One scenario floated by multiple sources is that the pair strike a deal, similar to that with former Green mayor Celia Wade-Brown. Lester waited for her to announce she would not seek a third term before declaring his candidacy in 2016.

“That's not the plan. There is no deal,” Lester insists.

Labour nominations close at the end of this month and they may opt to select no-one. One scenario could see Lester stand as an independent but seek the endorsement of both Labour and the Greens. It’s worth noting that he eschewed Labour’s traditional red branding in past campaigns, opting for yellow and black billboards.

But could he win? Opinion in the party is divided.

He has name recognition, charisma, and understands both business and the council. But the electorate rejected him once before - although only by a 62-vote margin.

It was during his mayoralty that malaise began to settle on the city. That would make his campaign vulnerable to attack.

A frequent criticism is his failure to declare a state of emergency in the wake of the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake, that would have allowed the city to draw on central government funds.

A proposed revamp of the civic precinct also stalled on his watch (and costs have now soared) and the city library closed due to seismic concerns.

Another is that his living wage policy — the city council was the first in the country to adopt the rate — has led to a budget blow-out on a heavily staffed bureaucracy. One councillor said this was a significant factor in today’s eye-watering rates.

Fleur Fitzsimons, a former council colleague and now Public Service Association acting national secretary, says much of the criticism of Lester was unfair.

“What we probably saw was the beginnings of Wellington really struggling, and people took that out on the mayor of the day.

“He didn't get a particularly easy ride from the media. That comes with political leadership, but probably some of them put an unfair amount of responsibility on his shoulders where it was councils before and a shared responsibility, rather than just sitting with him.”

Fitzsimons would support Lester for mayor. She believes he has the skills to heal a fractured council.

“He was a visionary leader,” she says. “He knows how council works, knows how to get things done, and his leadership style was very inclusive.

“He made sure that people's strengths were played to. All of the big decisions on major strategic issues like transport and housing in his time were unanimous votes because he listened to councillors and understood where they were coming from.

“He would work with officers to make sure proposals that reached the table were ones that people could support.”

But another Labour source is less enthusiastic: “He’d be the Steven Bradbury candidate.”

The Australia skater won gold in the 2002 Winter Olympics when all four of his competitors crashed out at the final corner, allowing Bradbury to avoid the pile-up and glide through to victory.

“They all just fell over and that would be how he wins. No-one else wants to run.

“Wanting to run for the Wellington mayoralty is right there the evidence that you shouldn’t be the mayor.

“Anyone who understands what the role requires, and has the kind of judgment and intelligence you would need in a mayor wouldn't want to run in a million years.”

At best, Lester “managed” his way through the daily news cycle, the critic says.

“He failed to communicate what he was doing and offered no cohesive rationale for why his leadership made any difference.

“He didn't translate all the advantages he had — like a strong majority — into a programme or a reform agenda.”

Over the Remutaka Hill, another ex mayor is more decisive about a potential return to office

Former Labour MP, Wellington mayor and head of the Greater Wellington Regional Council, Wilde announced her candidacy to be South Wairarapa’s mayor on Saturday after being approached by The Post earlier in the week with rumours she was considering a tilt.

Wilde said putting herself forward for local governance was not a career move.

“You can’t practise on the job. Rather it is my way of giving back to the community by bringing my know-how, skills and contacts to make tough decisions on issues that are plaguing us.

“The mayor is a key leader, not just chairing council meetings but being the voice of the community where it counts, negotiating better deals and pulling together disparate groups and individuals.”

Sources say Wilde was urged to run by the “Greytown Set”, who have tired of rates that have more than doubled, on average, over the past 10 years and an incumbent, Martin Connelly, who appears to be struggling.

Locals believe Wilde, now 76, would face a tough campaign from Melissa Sadler- Futter, should she run, and might be seen as an interloper.

The deputy mayor stepped in to delegate for Connelly when he took a two-month leave of absence to focus on his wellbeing and is viewed as energetic and well-connected to the community.

A Labour source says Wilde’s political career might best be left in the past.

“She's hoping that the good burghers of South Wairarapa forget that her last act from public life as chair of the Regional Council, was to propose a doomed amalgamation.

“Last time we heard from Fran, she was trying to get South Wairarapa swallowed up by f…… Wellington.”