Latest polls suggest Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori could form a government

Monday, 10 February 2025

The gap in support for Labour’s Chris Hipkins and National’s Christopher Luxon as preferred prime minister has narrowed.

Two new polls put the major political parties uncomfortably close, with Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori pulling in enough support in both to govern if the results were reflected at an election.

The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, taken between February 2 and 4 and released on Monday, had the Opposition with enough support to form a government.

While National just squeaked ahead at 31.9% to Labour’s 31.3%, a boost to the Greens meant Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori would pull together 61 seats - the first time in that poll since March 2022 that they have garnered enough support to govern.

For preferred prime minister, Christopher Luxon dipped to 20.7%, while Chris Hipkins went up to 17.6%.

Also released on Monday day, a 1News Verian poll had National still ahead, but down by three percentage points on 34% and Labour up four percentage points at 33%.

The Green Party was on 10% and ACT 9%. Translated to seats, the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc would have 61 seats and National-ACT-NZ First would have 60.

For the preferred prime minister, Luxon had 22% support and Hipkins 17%.

The Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll surveyed 800 people by phone and 200 by online panel, while the 1News Verian Poll surveyed 500 by phone and 500 by online panels between February 3 and 7.

The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll last month was the first time Labour led National in that poll since April 2023, nearly two years ago, when Labour had a bounce after Hipkins replaced Jacinda Ardern as prime minister. However, the numbers still supported National-ACT-NZ First government if reflected on election day, with 62 seats.

The recent Talbot Mills corporate poll had Labour’s support at 34% ‒ just ahead of National at 33%. Labour last led in that poll in June 2023. Talbot Mills also does internal polling for the Labour Party.

If reflected on election day, it would have given the left of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori enough seats to govern.

The poll also had Hipkins at 25% just ahead of Luxon as preferred PM at 24% ‒ the first time in a Talbot Mills poll since the election. The pair had been neck and neck twice in that time, the last time in May 2024.