New boundaries could mean ‘a different patchwork quilt of colours’ come election time

Wednesday, 26 March 2025

Judge Kevin Kelly announcing changes to the electorate boundaries.

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ANALYSIS: The proposed new electorate boundaries could spell a significant realignment of voters in the Wellington area.

At first blush, if they are confirmed, they could make it harder for the Green Party to win electorate seats in Wellington, while changing the demographic make-up of some other seats.

These boundaries are all proposals and could change after consultation but it appears unlikely. The Representation Commission - which reviews and adjusts the electorates- is thankfully non-partisan and basically driven by the numbers. Electorates need to have between 66,000 and 73,000 people.

In Māori electorates, it is between 75,000 and 78,000. The changes are driven by the numbers, which are in turn driven by population growth or shrinkage. New Zealand is well served by the technical nature of this system.

Wellington is set to lose one of its seats in Parliament, as the boundaries for electorates are reviewed.

As it is the party vote that matters for winning, electorate changes are not as important as they were in the pre-MMP environment. But they still matter as they come with resources and still serve as power bases for MPs. The ability to win an electorate seat and appeal to voters in your patch is still viewed favourably by political party hierarchies.

Three seats in Wellington - Ōhāriu in the northern suburbs of Wellington, Mana to its north around Porirua and Ōtaki to the north of that - will be abolished

They will be replaced with two new seats: Kenepuru, which will run from Johnsonville to just north of Porirua, and Kapiti which will run from there to just north of Ōtaki. Some of Ōhāriu electorate, such as Newlands, will sit in the seat of Hutt South. Chris Hipkins’ seat of Remutaka creeps south into the area around Epuni and the edge of Naenae and Boulcott.

While these changes won’t make much difference to Hipkins, they could have an effect in the close seat of Hutt South - held by National’s Chris Bishop but which has swing between Labour and National.

The seat of Wellington Central, which the Green MP Tamatha Paul comfortably wrested off Labour in 2023 after Grant Robertson’s retirement, will be expanded north to include the leafy - and more conservative voting - suburbs of Wadestown, Khandallah, Ngaio, Broadmeadows and Crofton Downs. That could see it swing away from the Greens and back to a Labour/National race depending on nationwide swings.

Wellington Central will also lose the area of Mt Cook and Brooklyn to the seat to its south-west, Rongotai. The changes to Rongotai aren’t major, but it will now take in most of Brooklyn. It was relatively close last election between Labour and the Greens. Julie Anne Genter is the current MP.

Meanwhile, Tim Costley’s seat of Ōtaki, will be basically cut into two, but still looks like it will lean blue.

Overall, the rejig of the Wellington electorates appears that it will favour the National and Labour parties.

In Christchurch, the working class seat of Wigram - home to Labour’s Megan Woods - is expanded significantly to the west and will cover a lot of new housing and lifestyle blocks. Given Woods won by only 1179 votes last time, that could make winning the seat more dicey for Labour. Since 1969 - it was abolished between 1978 and 1996 - it has never been won by a right-of-centre party. But it has been changing over recent years.

Christchurch Central, which has also expanded, will be safer for Labour’s Duncan Webb.

In Auckland, a series of seats have been realigned as well. A fair bit of the seat of Mt Albert (formerly held by Helen Clark and Dame Jacinda Ardern, and currently held by Helen White) around Grey Lynn and Westmere has been moved into Auckland Central. Grafton and Balmoral have moved into Epsom.

Mt Albert will probably marginally tougher for Labour as will Mt Roskill, where former minister Michael Wood is working hard to get re-elected.

The bigger changes, however, are in West Auckland, where the map has been largely redrawn. The seats of New Lynn, Kelston and Te Atatū will be scrapped and turned into new electorates of Waitākere, Glendene and Rānui. While the change is big, they are still Labour seats. In southeast Auckland, the boundaries of Panmure-Ōtāhuhu move south and the electorate is renamed Ōtāhuhu, making it stronger.

Overall, the changes are more of interest to party machinery and affect local races. But should they follow through, they may result in a different patchwork quilt of colours after the 2026 election.

See the proposed boundary changes here.