Government’s $9b Defence Capability Plan finally revealed
Monday, 7 April 2025
The Government will spend $9 billion on the Defence Force as it plans to double New Zealand’s defence spending to 2% of GDP in the coming decade, by purchasing missiles, drones, and rebuilding the defence estate.
The long-awaited Defence Capability Plan was released by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Defence Minister Judith Collins on Monday afternoon, after months of delay amid concern at Chinese warships firing in the Tasman Sea, United States strong-arming of defence partners, and protracted Cabinet deliberations.
The plan outlined billions in spending in the coming decade, with a sharp increase of $12b when including depreciation funding in the coming four years.
READ MORE: How to spend billions on the Defence Force
The plan presented, at a high-level, expensive defence spending decisions that would be made in the coming years, but without specifics such as the type of missiles and ships that would be acquired. Costs estimates for large acquisitions ranged, in the case of “enhanced strike capabilities”, from $100 million to $300m.
The Government would invest in missiles so New Zealand can “project” force into the region, on unmanned sea and air vehicles, and replacements to the troubled Boeing 757s.
The plans also prepares Defence for the years following 2029, in which the navy’s frigates and sealift vessel are replaced, a Southern Ocean Patrol vessel is acquired, further land-based artillery or missiles are acquired, and more drones are bought – bringing defence spending to 2% of GDP by 2032.
“The past few months have reinforced that tectonic shifts are unfolding in the global exercise of power, economic leverage and also strategic influence. Old assumptions are being upended and rules are giving way to power” said Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.
“We must be clear-eyed in recognising the risk of conflict in our wider region has risen, and we have to do our part internationally and domestically.”
The plan represented “the floor, not the ceiling”.
“This plan is not just about the Defence Force. It’s fundamentally about our national security and our economic prosperity.”
The Government’s new defence plan has aspects comparable to Australia’s 2024 plan, in which it aimed to spend 2.4% on GDP, including $51b on new frigates and $28b for sea- and land-fired missiles, aimed at power “projection”.
For New Zealand, a priority in the coming four years would be acquiring longer-range missiles, possibly for existing platforms including the navy’s Anzac frigates or P-8 Poseidon submarine hunting and surveillance aircraft.
While the specific missiles the Government will seek were not detailed, the plan said Defence would “explore acquiring the same capabilities as Australia or partners”.
Defence Minister Judith Collins said, “This plan isn’t about choosing sides or beating the drums of war. It is about supporting our diplomatic efforts to maintain the rules-based order.”
Australia in December became the third country to acquire and fire a Tomahawk cruise missile. The Tomahawks have a range of 2500km - greater than the distance between Sydney and Auckland - and Australia plans a stockpile of 200.
The 2022 acquisition of a Southern Ocean Patrol vessel was delayed amid the Covid-19 pandemic, and has been pushed out until 2029 or beyond in the plan. In the meantime, unmanned sea craft would be acquired.
Behind the plan was a sharpening of the Defence Force’s focus on protecting and promoting the security of New Zealand, the Pacific, and its closest partners, particularly Australia.
Investments will be aimed at giving Defence “enhanced lethality and deterrent effect”, making it “a force multiplier with Australia and interoperable with partners”, and improve its innovation and “situational awareness” through uncrewed vehicles.
Defence will be expected to “project” force, maintain an awareness of New Zealand’s large Exclusive Economic Zone, deter “actors that seek to challenge the existing regional strategic balance”, sustain concurrent combat operations, and contribute to emergency response and trans-national crime efforts in New Zealand and the Pacific.
The development of an “Anzac force” will be further pursued, and the first consideration for major new investments will be, “what is the Australian approach, and is there any reasons for New Zealand to take a different approach?”.
The announcement comes just days after Collins and the Defence Force fronted the findings of an inquiry into the sinking of the $103m Navy ship, the HMNZS Manawanui, off the coast of Samoa last year. Human error and lack of experience had contributed to the sinking.