The Post-Freshwater Strategy Poll: Labour pulls ahead of National

Wednesday, 18 June 2025

Labour has pulled ahead of National in the latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure NZ, as nearly half of New Zealanders say the country is heading in the wrong direction and cost-of-living concerns continue to dominate public sentiment.

The Labour Party has gained seven points since the 2023 election to reach 34%, overtaking National on 32%, down six points. The Greens are on 11%, with ACT and NZ First each polling at 8%.

Using the Electoral Commission’s seat calculator, voters would deliver a narrow one seat majority for National-ACT and NZ First.

That assumes all seats won on election night are held.

Chris Hipkins pulled ahead of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in the preferred prime minister stakes — 43% to 37%.

Hipkins’ favourability has climbed five points since November, while Luxon has slipped to a net rating of -18.

Former prime minister Jacinda Ardern remains the most popular political figure with a net favourability of +12.

The shift comes amid a deeply pessimistic national mood. Forty-nine per cent of voters believe New Zealand is heading in the wrong direction, compared with just 35% who say it's on the right track ‒ a sentiment unchanged since November.

Cost-of-living pressures remain the defining issue of the political landscape. A majority of voters (56%) identify it as one of their top three concerns, and nearly a third (32%) say it's the single most important issue facing the country.

Concern about the broader economy is also rising sharply, jumping eight points since late 2024 to become the third-ranked issue (32%) ‒ just behind healthcare (50%).

Voters are divided on who bears responsibility for the current state of the economy: 27% blame the National-led coalition, while 23% hold the previous Labour government accountable. Unsurprisingly, these views are largely split along party lines.

Despite his overall decline, Luxon retains a perceived edge on several economic and security-related issues.

He leads on improving defence and national security (net +23), managing debt and borrowing (net +16), and reducing crime (net +15).

He’s also viewed as more willing to make tough decisions and ensure taxpayer money is spent wisely ‒ although his advantage on that front has narrowed.

Hipkins is now seen as stronger across most other areas, particularly those linked to empathy and social wellbeing.

Voters increasingly believe he understands the pressures families are facing, and Labour is now seen as the best party to manage the cost of living ‒ a reversal from just six months ago.

Freshwater Strategy’s Tim Hurdle, a former campaign strategist for National, said the poll was “reflective of the mood of the economy and the fact that people are feeling under pressure”.

“The poll probably doesn’t show a great strength for Labour, they reflect more a default position that people want to see more action to get back on track.

“Voters are expecting to see some improvement before they are willing to return the Government.”

Voters were showing indecision, he said. “There’s no data there that shows a particular surge in one direction, more a concern about the political and economic situation.

“What is interesting to see is the strength of NZ First and ACT relative to the major party in the coalition. That is a reflection perhaps in the confidence people have had in Winston Peters in dealing with the global situation, and the prominence the ACT party have had as part of the coalition.

“This is unusual. Normally minority parties are overwhelmed during a time in government.”

National’s Chris Bishop was nonchalant.

“Polls bounce around a bit they always do between elections. We're very focused on rebuilding the economy and restoring law and order and focusing on the issues that Kiwis want us to be focused on.

“Ultimately, Chris Hipkins is going to end up campaigning to be prime minister with Chlöe Swarbrick, [Rawiri ] Waititi, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and all of the crazies on the left side of the political spectrum.

“And I think, ultimately, there will be a very stark contrast at the 2026 election.”

Carmel Sepuloni, Labour’s deputy leader, said her party was steadily gaining ground.

“Christopher Luxon is completely out of touch with what families are going through.

“He stands up and he talks about being ‘wealthy and sorted’ as if other people are going to look at that and think it's a good thing.

“There are many families out there that are struggling financially. At the moment, the cost of living pressures have not got any easier under this government.

“And I think that people see Chris Hipkins as the alternative that actually understands the pressure that they are faced.”

Sepuloni said the Budget didn’t land well with the public, who were now beginning to question the Government’s economic credibility.

“The budget didn’t shift the sentiment because so many New Zealanders saw that they took from women to pay for what they were actually putting in place … and there were very slim offerings here.

“This is off the back of last year giving tax breaks to landlords and the tobacco industry and paying for tax cuts.”