The Post-Freshwater Strategy Poll:’No BS’ Budget fails to deliver National poll lift

Thursday, 19 June 2025

A new poll reveals voters were underwhelmed by the coalition government’s second Budget, and divided on an overhaul of equal pay legislation.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis slashed more than a billion from the operating allowance, making it the tightest in a decade.

Money saved from cancelling pay equity claims and halving KiwiSaver contributions was used to fund a $1.7 billion tax break for capital investments and meet cost pressures in the health sector and boost spending in defence and foreign affairs.

Willis pitched it as a “growth” and “no BS” Budget.

However, a new poll conducted by The Post/Freshwater Strategy with Infrastructure NZ delved into public reaction to the recent amendment to the Equal Pay Act.

A majority (55%) of those polled were aware of the decision to raise the threshold for proof of discrimination for pay equity claims, while 37% were not.

Initial reactions to the shake-up showed division, with just over one-third (31%) of respondents opposing the decision, and just under one-third (28%) supporting it. Close to two in five (41%) remained neutral or unsure.

However, after being provided with additional context and information about the amendment, opposition increased by 7 percentage points, while support saw a slight increase of 1 percentage point. Neutrality and uncertainty both declined.

Men, as well as ACT and National Party supporters, were more likely to support the amendments, while Green and Labour supporters were most likely to oppose them.

The decision to amend the Equal Pay Act also appears to have impacted public confidence in the government's commitment to gender equality.

Nearly two in five (42%) voters reported that this decision made them less confident in the government's commitment, while just under one-third (30%) felt it made no difference. Only 18% reported increased confidence.

Analysis shows that women (52%) were more likely to feel less confident in the government’s commitment to gender equality compared to men (30%). Green (64%) party voters were also among those most likely to feel less confident.

The poll, conducted in mid June, interviewed 1,150 eligible voters aged 18 and over online between June 12-15, 2025. It indicates almost half of the voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. That sentiment is consistent with November 2024 data.

It found that over one-third (34%) of voters believe the Budget was focused on the wrong priorities.

Just under one-third (29%) felt it presented the right priorities, with nearly two in five (37%) being neutral or unsure.

The margin of error for topline results is +/- 3%.

In a further blow to the Government, a major finding is the public's lack of confidence in the Budget's ability to address the nation's top concern: the cost of living.

A majority (54%) of voters do not believe the current budget will help reduce the cost of living for New Zealanders, while only around one in five (22%) believe it will.

This is particularly significant given that relieving cost of living pressures is the top priority issue among 56% of voters and is considered the single most important issue by 32%.

Voters also expressed concern about government spending and public services, with a clear majority (63%) worried about cuts or constraints.

Around one-quarter (26%) stated they were not concerned.

However, asked about long-term financial stability, voters offered mixed signals.

A clear majority (62%) of voters think the Government should reduce spending to reduce public debt.

This contrasts with one in five (21%) who prefer public sector jobs to be preserved, even if it adds to national debt.

A clear majority (57%) of voters also indicated a preference for tax cuts, even if it meant less government spending on public services.

Conversely, one-third (33%) would prefer tax increases to enable more government spending on public services.