The Post-Freshwater Strategy Poll: Labour gains, but key issues remain with Coalition

Thursday, 19 June 2025

ANALYSIS: The latest The Post-Freshwater Poll contains a mixed bag for the Government, the opposition and everyone else beside.

On the overall political party ratings it confirms a trend being seen in other public polls, that the National Party has fallen below Labour but that the current Coalition would still likely be able to form a Government.

That’s because of an increase in the vote for NZ First which continues to poll well.

The headline numbers are basically the same as other recently published public polls, things have changed a bit since the last The Post-Freshwater Poll with Infrastructure NZ in November. Since then National has fallen three points to 32%, Labour has risen by 3 points to 34%, the Greens have fallen 2 points to 11%, while NZ First has gone up 2 point to 8% and Act scores the same, holding steady since November. Te Pāti Māori is down a four points to 2%.

On those numbers, the Coalition would have a one seat majority.

At face value this is very good for Labour, compared to both election night and last November, but looking under the hood makes for far more mixed reading.

On this poll the cost of living remains the biggest issue for voters and the Labour Party is now seen as the best party to manage this. Turns out that being in Government means being blamed for high prices, a big horse that National rode to election victory in 2023. Health and hospitals is the second most important.

A Luxon National-led Government remains the favourite amongst voters for defence and national security (at a big net +23% lead), managing national debt and borrowing levels (net +16%), reducing crime and improving social order, ensuring that the economy is strong and improving roads and transport links all round out the big upsides for the political right.

On the left, a Hipkins Labour-led is seen as much stronger on increasing welfare and benefits (36% - although whether that is a political plus is debatable), reducing emissions, improving housing supply and affordability, as well as on health, education and cost of living.

Much of this is what you would expect, the two parties rate highest for their traditional strengths with the exception of cost-of-living which is a problem of incumbency (even with interest rates coming down). It hurt Labour in Government, and it is hurting the Coalition now.

So the question with a general election presumed about 16 months away is which issues voters will prioritise when they have to turn their minds to it. How much longer will the cost-of-living crunch remain.

On the leadership side, Christopher Luxon’s run of poor polling continues. Chris Hipkins remains the preferred prime minister at 43% to 37%. On net favourability (favourable minus unfavourable), Labour leader Chris Hipkins remains streets ahead at +4% compared to Christopher Luxon at -18, below King Charles III. Jacinda Ardern has increased her lead as the most favoured PM at +12%, and she has retired from politics.

There were also some other interesting results. The Post will be publishing more over the next few days, but a couple of questions revolved around taxes versus public spending. While nearly two thirds of those polled (63%) were concerned about public service cuts, 62% preferred to cut government spending to reduce public sector debt (only 21% favoured jobs over debt). Meanwhile 57% preferred tax cuts even if it meant less spending on Government services (compared to 33% for tax hikes preserving services).

This suggests that while the public is grumpy with the government and extremely unconvinced by the prime minister, the Luxon-led Coalition has some key issues on its side that are central to its narrative. Despite the significant attacks from Labour and the Greens over tax cuts and public service cuts, this does not appear fertile ground for the opposition. Health on the other hand, which Labour has also been targeting and is the second biggest issues in voters’ minds, almost certainly is.

This is the third Freshwater Strategy Poll for The Post. The firm, which has done political polling for both sides of politics in the United Kingdom and in Australia at a state level, has recently made headlines in Australia as some in the centre-right Liberal Party has cast around for people to blame for its disastrous defeat.

The reason is technical, but in its work for the Liberal Party it essentially made an incorrect assumption around preference flows (which don’t apply to NZ) based on voting patterns in the Voice referendum. Director Michael Turner gave a mea culpa and detailed explanation in the Financial Review.

It remains the pollster for The Australian Financial Review, City AM and boasts an array of corporate clients. As the The Post’s political editor, I remain very confident in its accuracy.

This poll really shows the effects that the continued sluggish economy and baked in high prices from the post-inflation era continue to challenge the Government - but that it is still mostly favoured to manage the economy.

As ever, the question is the extent to which these numbers are locked in or could shift around over the coming 12 months. Most likely, this time next year Parliament will be entering its last couple of months ahead of the general election.

_CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story said National have fallen 6 points and Labour gained 7 points compared with the last Freshwater Poll in November. Those numbers were actually compared with the poll taken in August 2023. (Amended Thursday June 19, 2025 _6.42am)__