Luxon’s leadership running out of oxygen as polls tighten

Monday, 11 August 2025

Andrea Vance is National Affairs Editor for The Post and Sunday Star-Times.

OPINION: For months, Christopher Luxon has relied on two things to keep his leadership secure: the lack of a clear successor and uncertainty over which faction would dare seize the crown.

That bought him breathing space.

Two new polls show the oxygen is thinning fast.

The Curia/Taxpayers’ Union monthly numbers were served up with morning coffee on Monday and showed Labour edging ahead in the party vote (up two points to 33.6%, with National slipping to 31.8% (–2.1). That would deliver a hung Parliament. In the preferred PM stakes, Luxon and Hipkins were tied on 20.2%.

By the time the evening news rolled around, the 1News Verian poll showed a slightly rosier picture for National’s party vote (steady on 34% to Labour’s 33%) but a sharp personal hit for Luxon. His preferred PM rating slid three points to 20% — his lowest since becoming prime minister — putting Hipkins within one point at 19%.

Labour, left for dead less than two years ago, enjoyed a lift in both polls. And in the last 11 public opinion polls, it has led the party vote five times (with one tie). That dead heat record is deeply troubling for a first-term government.

Hipkins, meanwhile, is benefiting from a deliberate strategy of doing very little — starving National of policy to attack while letting the Government absorb the heat. It’s low-risk, low-effort, and for now is paying off.

What’s also striking about the poll is the lack of enthusiasm for either of the big players. Across both polls, roughly a third of the country is parking its vote with minor parties. About a third of New Zealanders can’t see anything inspiring in either of the two men most likely to be prime minister.

It is NZ First who is benefiting most from this drift. A trend across all polls shows a surge for Peters’ party since January. His deputy Shane Jones is now reappearing in the rankings for the first time in more than a decade on 1%.

This is a bad mix for any prime minister: sliding personal ratings, an opposition that is experiencing a lift while coasting, and a coalition partner growing in influence.

The danger isn’t just public perception — it’s caucus patience.

Luxon’s preferred PM rating slid three points to 20% — his lowest since becoming Prime Minister.

Speculation about his leadership has really picked up as the economy stalls. It’s starting to reach fever pitch again.

National MPs will be watching the next few polls like hawks. If this trend holds into spring, those murmurs will morph into something sharper.

The party still bears scars from the rapid-fire leadership changes of 2019–21, but self-preservation is a powerful motivator.

In the coming weeks Luxon’s leadership also faces two acute challenges.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis is in New York and London for meetings - with the usual leaders and officials but also credit rating agencies.

First, credit ratings agencies are in the process of scrutinising the credibility of the Government’s plans. Treasury forecasts show government debt continuing to rise alongside only a slim projected surplus and S&P has already warned that New Zealand’s sluggish fiscal recovery, persistent deficits, and slow economic growth could prompt a negative outlook or downgrade.

Such a move would raise borrowing costs, complicate the Government’s finances, and further constrain Luxon’s economic messaging in an already fraught climate.

Adding to the pressure is growing tension within Cabinet over whether New Zealand should formally recognise Palestine, with a decision also expected next month ahead of the United Nations General Assembly. Foreign Minister Winston Peters has pushed for recognition but other ministers, particularly within National and ACT, strongly oppose the move.

The issue isn’t easily navigated because it isn’t covered by the coalition agreement, and New Zealand’s diplomatic hesitation already risks embarrassing New Zealand as it falls behind neighbours like Australia, the UK, and Canada.

With these internal and external pressures mounting, Luxon’s grip on leadership is increasingly uncertain.

The question for now isn’t whether the race to 2026 will be close — it’s whether Luxon will be the one leading his party across the line.