Poll: Voters losing faith in Government on key issues

Sunday, 31 August 2025

The tide is turning on National’s economic credibility, with a new Ipsos poll revealing Kiwis are growing restless - as National loses ground on all major issues. Amelia Wade reports.

As job losses mount and the cost of living continues to bite, a new poll shows faith in National’s economic management is fading fast.

The latest Ipsos Issues Monitor, provided first exclusively to the Sunday Star-Times, shows the Government is losing its grip on the very issues it campaigned on - inflation, crime, housing and the economy - with voter confidence crumbling and Labour rapidly closing the gap.

New Zealanders are increasingly anxious about the cost of living, with six in 10 now naming it as the country’s most pressing issue - the highest level of concern recorded in more than a year.

But National’s perceived ability to handle the crisis is plummeting - it’s dropped five points since May, to 26%, while Labour’s favourability is rising, to now sit at 33%.

The left block now leads on 17 of the top 20 issues facing New Zealand, while National owns just three: the economy, crime and defence, but even on those issues it’s losing ground.

In February last year, almost half (47%) believed National was best-placed to manage the economy, but that’s now fallen to 32%. Labour is closing in and is now sitting on 30%, just two points behind National.

Kiwis are even losing confidence in National to handle crime, falling from a peak of 41% in February last year to 31% in the latest survey, with the party now just seven points ahead of Labour.

The souring of public opinion has coalesced in the coalition government’s ratings hitting new lows, with the average dropping to a score of to 4.2 out of 10, and 41% of respondents gave the Government a failing grade between 0–3.

The problem, says political commentator Ben Thomas, is Christopher Luxon and National made big promises and are now suffering from a winter of discontent.

“Obviously if you came to power promising to solve the cost of living crisis this [survey] is bad news.

“It first of all confirms what people feel, which is that they're doing it tough, and second of all that the Government isn't living up to what it was elected on.”

Inflation is now back within the comfortable band of 3%, but higher prices are now baked in while power, rates and water are all costing households more, and unemployment is rising.

And the economy is still faltering, to the point that the Reserve Bank has left the door open to two more cuts to the benchmark cash rate before the end of the year to create more stimulus.

It’s all putting pressure on Luxon, who is hoping that when a large chunk of Kiwis re-fix their mortgages at lower rates before the end of the year, they’ll have more money to spend and put back into the economy.

And as often as he can, Luxon says the Government is focused on the cost of living, with its InvestmentBoost scheme and reform of the Resource Management Act and the education system.

“We’re always up for looking at initiatives that we as a government can put together that can support quality economic activity,” he said this week.

“What we’re not up for is rinky-dink ideas like the cost of living payments and those sorts of things.”

But Luxon and National’s problem is that people still aren’t feeling it, said Thomas.

“Luxon is fond of saying it takes a long time to turn this ship around. He's right and the Government, to an extent, has gambled just on the natural economic cycle creating an economic recovery while these longer-term reforms, which should have the effect of improving productivity, bed in.

“Unfortunately for them right now it's a gamble that hasn't paid off because the economy hasn't recovered as quickly as a number of forecasts have suggested.”

Nicola Willis was this week asked by a reporter whether she was hoping to manifest an economic recovery. She replied that there was a brighter future ahead because of the steps the Government was taking.

The rest was up to Kiwis.

“Ultimately it’ll be New Zealanders who manifest that, when they decide through their judgement that they are ready to invest, hire people and grow.”

The survey also shows concern about the deteriorating labour market, with the unemployment rate now hitting a five-year high of 5.2%.

One in five now see it as a key issue - the highest level recorded since November 2020 when unemployment was at similar levels during the Covid pandemic. But National’s perceived ability to manage unemployment has been trending down since February, while confidence in Labour has slowly increased. There is now a 14-point gap between the two parties.

There is also a generational divide in concerns. Younger New Zealanders appear to be feeling financial pain most acutely, naming inflation, housing, and unemployment as key concerns. In contrast, older New Zealanders are most worried about crime - cited by nearly a third of seniors, double the national average - and healthcare.

There was a slight stabilisation in the falling confidence when Simeon Brown was put in as health minister, but National’s score is now at its lowest at 22%. However, confidence in Labour’s ability is also slipping - falling from a high of 40% in May to 37%.

Meanwhile the gap between the two parties’ perceived ability to manage housing has widened to nine points in Labour’s favour, making it the largest gap in perception seen since National’s nine-point lead in February last year. The view on National and housing is the lowest it’s been, matching healthcare at 22%.

The Ipsos survey is the latest in a long list of bad polls for the Government, and reflects a definite grumpiness on the ground and a politically volatile electorate.

In a June poll by The Post and Freshwater Strategy, Labour was also seen as the best party to manage the cost of living, while 49% of voters believed New Zealand was heading in the wrong direction, compared with just 35% who say it's on the right track ‒ a sentiment unchanged since November.

Thomas, a former staffer for the previous National government, said even though Luxon and senior ministers brushed off the bad polls, they weren’t ignoring the message.

There has been a clear move to make a barrage of announcements which make the Government look focused on the cost of living, said Thomas.

Every sod-turning was an opportunity to spread the word.

“One example I saw a week or so ago was that Arts and Culture Minister Paul Goldsmith put out a press release about a new storage facility for Te Papa that's being built.

“Normally that’s a press release that would start with, ‘Great news we're protecting the nation's taonga [treasures]’. This one started with the number of jobs it will create and when shovels will be in the ground.”

Thomas said it wasn’t quite panic stations for National - midway through the term is traditionally when polls and sentiment are at their worst for governments.

But if the mood doesn’t pick up by summer when people are getting vitamin D and if the economy hasn’t recovered, then the worry will really start to set in, he said.

“On the sort of trend of polls that we've seen, it's really a toss-up as to who would win an election that was held now.”

The quarterly Ipsos Issues report surveyed 1,002 New Zealanders August 11-18 and has a 3% margin of error.

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