Inside the attack campaign testing Nicola Willis’ standing

Friday, 5 September 2025

The Taxpayers’ Union has called Finance Minister Nicola Willis “tricky Nicky”, blasting her “fudge-it Budget” and her policies as “reckless”.

Andrea Vance is National Affairs Editor for The Post and Sunday Star-Times.

ANALYSIS: Finance Minister Nicola Willis has found herself in an unusual position: the most sustained political attacks on her record are not coming from Labour or the Greens, but from a group nominally on her own side of politics.

In the past month alone, the Taxpayers’ Union has pumped out 11 press releases and more than 60 social media posts criticising her handling of the economy, legislation to kill off a major consumer class action lawsuit against ANZ and ASB, and the untidy exit of Reserve Bank chair Neil Quigley.

That is an extraordinary level of concentrated fire on a single minister, especially one in a first-term government.

The message has been relentless. Willis, the pressure group says, has failed to rein in spending, borrowed more than her predecessor Grant Robertson, hired more bureaucrats, and relied on “invented” surplus measures.

In the words of co-founder and executive director Jordan Williams: “Almost all of the Government’s problems come back to Nicola Willis’ failure to deal with the economy.”

That critique is sharpened by the voice delivering it. The think tank’s chair is former National finance minister Ruth Richardson, remembered for her radical 1991 Mother of All Budgets.

She and Williams have publicly compared Willis unfavourably with Cabinet colleague Erica Stanford, the education and immigration minister whose star is rising.

Williams rejects suggestions the Taxpayers’ Union is trying to influence National’s leadership balance. He argues the group is simply holding Willis to her own 2023 campaign promises to restore fiscal discipline.

“She is the Minister of Finance. She is in charge now,” he said. “There has been no discussion internally to make it personal.”

One of the Taxpayers' Union cartoons featuring Nicola Willis. They wrote in a Facebook post: 'Deficit after deficit — there's no Hollywood ending for taxpayers.'

But sources have told The Post otherwise. They say the sustained targeting is an effort to shore up Luxon’s troubled leadership by weakening what the group regards as the Government’s softest link: Willis and her grip on the economy.

Whether or not it is intended as political manoeuvring, the effect is to elevate Willis’ potential rivals and cast doubt on her standing in Cabinet.

It’s problematic for Willis because a finance minister’s authority rests on the perception of competence and control. The union is prodding the Government’s soft underbelly by zeroing in on precisely those vulnerabilities.

Amplifying Willis’ perceived failings, and the sluggish economy, is unhelpful to a government battling to convince voters it has a credible plan to ease cost-of-living pressures.

And this is a campaigning outfit with a track record of driving debate, and occasionally change. Its social media channels churn out memes and it has a sizeable email distribution list and significant reach. Its monthly public polls are widely reported and closely studied in the Beehive, giving the group another lever to shape the political weather.

That reach extends from a campaigning model that has also powered groups such as the Sensible Sentencing Trust, Groundswell, Federated Farmers and Hobson’s Pledge.

On this post, the Taxpayers Union wrote: 'Nicola’s ‘Economic Magic Show’: More debt, more costs — and no answers.' The post asked: 'Do you think taxpayers are the ones paying for her tricks?' and encourged people to 'comment your thoughts.'

The model is farming outrage, tapping into angry-boomer rage, and monetising it through memberships, donations and coordinated campaigns through Williams’ Campaign Company. This gives it far more bite than a conventional lobby group.

It’s unusual for a National Party minister to come in for such sustained criticism from the centre-right group. (Its current targets also include Chris Hipkins for his refusal to show up to Covid-19 inquiry public hearings and Chlöe Swarbrick for the Greens’ economic and fiscal policies). And its demographic is exactly the support National can’t afford to lose.

There is no love lost between Willis and the Taxpayers’ Union. It was among a number of non-profit groups barred from the Budget lock-up in May. Williams threatened legal action. Treasury relented.

Willis has not taken its criticism quietly. She recently accused the think-tank of wanting her to cut health and education spending, a charge it angrily denies. In a statement to The Post she doubled down.

“I’m not going to comment on how the Taxpayers’ Union expresses itself, but it’s not surprising that it has a different point of view to me. It argues for severe reductions in government expenditure. This Government’s view is that taking that approach would be bad for Kiwi families, bad for business and bad for the economy.”

She pointed to $44 billion in savings across the Government’s first two Budgets. Core Crown expenditure peaked above 34% of GDP under Labour; Willis says it fell to 32.7% last year and Treasury forecasts it dropping further to 30.9% by 2028/29.

Her defence extends to the technical criticisms levelled at her OBEGAL-X measure (that strips out state insurer ACC to get back to surplus).

On that occasion, she overrode officials: “My role as minister is to make decisions in what I consider to be the best interests of New Zealanders, not just to accept officials’ advice.”

Willis also disputes the Taxpayers’ Union’s claims of ballooning bureaucracy. She notes that in the year to March public service staff numbers actually declined by 3.1%, with more frontline workers – such as corrections officers – and fewer administrators and policy analysts.