‘Shocking’ by-election loss puts Labour-Te Pāti Māori relationship in spotlight

Tuesday, 9 September 2025

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The Labour MP behind the party’s losing Tāmaki Makaurau by-election strategy says Te Pāti Māori needs to decide whether it wants to be a stable coalition partner before the general election.

Shanan Halbert ran the campaign for Peeni Henare, who lost the seat by just under 3000 votes, a massive drop after he had narrowly lost the seat by just 42 votes at the general election.

The party is now licking its wounds and looking ahead to the general election next year, when current polling suggests Labour would need Te Pāti Māori’s support to govern.

Labour Māori caucus chairperson Willie Jackson said he was “shocked” by the scale of the defeat and would be suggesting to leader Chris Hipkins that he meet with Te Pāti Māori’s co-leaders before the end of the year.

“We have to get together and see what we do agree on and what we disagree on. We were having regular meetings with them before, I will be recommending a meeting with their leadership.”

Government MPs have been at pains to associate Labour with Te Pāti Māori, who are typically seen as more radical than Labour.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said on Monday the takeaway from the loss was Te Pati Māori would have a “tremendous amount of influence” on Labour.

Halbert told The Post there was “work to do” before the election to work out how such a relationship might go, but that this was above his pay grade.

“A question for Te Pāti Māori is whether they want to be an agitator in the system or a meaningful coalition partner,” he said.

Former TPM staffer: Avoid coalition with Labour

Former Te Pāti Māori staffer Jack McDonald said both Labour and Te Pati Māori needed to sit down and work out what a future Government might look like.

He suggested Te Pati Māori should go into the general election with a clear intention to stay out of a formal coalition with Labour, instead pushing for either a confidence and supply arrangement or perhaps an abstention agreement.

This would let the party put Labour in power but not bind them to all their decisions.

“It would be very difficult to be part of the Government as in having ministers. They should consider operating on a confidence and supply agreement for policy wins,” McDonald said.

“Voters do want to see what a Government in waiting might look like.”

This was especially crucial given the experience Te Pāti Māori had when last in Government - when it lost all its seats following a governing arrangement with National.

Te Pāti Māori was asked for comment.

Two-for-one messaging hard to beat

Halbert said the loss reflected the strength of Te Pāti Māori’s “two-for-one” message - an argument the party made that electing Henare was not necessary as he already had a spot in Parliament as a list MP.

“There was a compelling reason for people to turn up on the day and support Oriini Kaipara, which potentially Labour didn’t have.”

He argued Labour actually outperformed Te Pāti Māori on the “ground game” - door knocking and hoardings - but failed because of how hard it was to beat the two-for-one narrative.

Labour would do some analysis this week but that the core message of “jobs health and homes” was not at fault, Halbert said.

Jackson and McDonald both agreed with this sentiment.

“Maori voters are the most strategic voters,” McDonald said.

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