The majority of Kiwis think there will be a capital gains tax by 2050

Tuesday, 16 September 2025

Chris Hipkins attends a Wellington Chamber of Commerce breakfast on Tuesday. Hipkins said if NZ was to not be an international outlier it would tackle the CGT issue at some point.

Should New Zealand have a capital gains tax? Have your say in the comments.

A majority of New Zealanders believe there will be a capital gains tax by 2050 - including Chris Hipkins.

The poll from Talbot Mills, obtained exclusively for The Post, asked Kiwi adults to judge how likely a series of potential events were for New Zealand in 2050.

More than half - 55% - of Kiwis thought it was likely a capital gains tax (CGT) would be in place by 2050, while 26% were unsure and 19% thought it was unlikely.

Whether or not to campaign on a CGT is a live policy debate within the Labour Party, while the National Party has long opposed any introduction of one.

A CGT would impose a levy on the profits made from selling assets such as property or businesses above the original purchase price.

CGTs, particularly on residential property, have been mooted in New Zealand since at least the 1980s but have proved politically volatile.

Labour campaigned on a CGT in 2011 and 2014 but lost both elections. Former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern ruled out ever introducing a CGT while leader in 2019 following a Tax Working Group suggesting one.

Nicola Willis said it was clear Labour would campaign on taxing people more.

Hipkins ruled out a CGT at the 2023 election but his party is now somewhat open to campaigning on one in 2026, with a drawn out internal policy process expected to be completed at some point this year.

Hipkins refused to be drawn on detail of his plans, but said Kiwis could see the need for the tax system to widen.

“I think New Zealanders do recognise the need for our tax system to broaden its base. We can’t just rely on salary and wage earners, GST, and corporate tax, for pretty much all of the Government’s income,” Hipkins said.

Asked if he expected there to be a CGT by 2050, Hipkins replied: “I would, unless we’re going to be an international outlier. At some point New Zealand will need to tackle that.”

Finance Minister Nicola Willis said she expected Labour to campaign on some kind of CGT.

Richard Wagstaff, president of the Council of Trade Unions Te Kauae Kaimahi says the Mood of the Workforce survey indicates strong worker support for a capital gains, or wealth tax.

“2050 is a long way away, but it’s pretty clear that the Labour Party plan to tax people more. The only question is whether that includes the family home - and I’d say that is the most likely,” Willis said.

Talbot Mills are Labour’s pollster but this poll was not prepared for them.

Kiwis expect to be worse off, have legal cannabis, and to retreat inland

Other predictions rated by the public showed more Kiwis expected the country would be worse off economically than better off.

A plurality (44%) said it was unlikely New Zealanders would be better off than they are now, while 37% disagreed, and 19% were unsure.

A strong majority believed that cannabis would be legalised by 2050 - 64% versus just 25% who thought it was unlikely.

And a slightly majority (53%) predicted as likely a “huge retreat inland from rising seas”, while a larger majority (58%) predicted a “collapse in coastal property values”.

Talbot Mills conducted a similar poll in 1999 asking Kiwis to predict the likelihood of various events in 2025.

The results were described as “patchy” but 40% of Kiwis in 1999 correctly predicted a large global pandemic, while 57% correctly predicted that gay marriage would be legalised.