New poll has National below 30, left bloc in power
Wednesday, 8 October 2025
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National has fallen below 30% in the latest monthly Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll.
Labour has dropped too but would be able to lead a left bloc with 61 seats.
The poll comes soon after it emerged that the New Zealand economy shrunk 0.9% in the second quarter of this year.
Labour remained the largest party but dropped 2.6 points on the month prior to 31.2%, while National fell 3.5 points to 29.6%
The beneficiaries are NZ First, up 2.5 points to 10.6%, and the Greens, up 1.3 points to 12%. ACT slipped marginally to 6.6%, while Te Pāti Māori rose slightly to 4.4%.
These results would mean the centre-left bloc could govern with 61 seats to the centre-right's 59 — Labour on 40 seats, National on 38, Greens on 15, NZ First on 13, ACT on 8, and Te Pāti Māori on 6.
This assumes that Te Pāti Māori win at least one electorate seat. The party currently holds six.
It also assumes that Te Pāti Māori would want to work with a Labour-led coalition in some form.
The two parties have been at loggerheads of late and Labour leader Chris Hipkins has suggested the party was “a long way away” from being ready for Government after one of its key activists split off from the party and described it as “dictatorial”.
Politicians generally assume that some kind of deal - perhaps a confidence and supply - could be worked out between the parties.
The poll was conducted between October 1 and 5.
Hipkins overtakes Luxon in preferred Prime Minister
Labour dropped but its leader Hipkins saw a rise in support in the preferred prime minister stakes.
A 3.2 point rise to 20.9% put him narrowly ahead of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who fell 1.9 points to 19.8%.
Sitting prime ministers customarily lead in preferred prime minister polls, but Hipkins has led Luxon in several other pollsters’ preferred prime ministerial stakes.
NZ First leader Winston Peters was down 1 point to 9.9%, Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick was down 2.5 points to 6.3%, and David Seymour was up 0.3 points to 4%.
The “cost of living” remained the top issue with 26.4% citing it as their most important issue. The “economy” followed this at 17.4%, while Health was at 10.3%.
Taxpayers’ Union spokesman James Ross said the results suggested voters were souring on both major parties.
“Treasury’s fiscal forecasts have shone National and Labour in terrible lights this month, and a combined 6.1% drop for the major parties is quite the vote of no confidence.”
The poll of 1000 adults, weighted to represent the overall adult population, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%. It was conducted via phone (landline and mobile) as well as online.
Curia are National’s polling firm of choice and was founded by former National Party staffer David Farrar.
The Taxpayers’ Union have been attacking the Government from the right in recent months, with chair and former National Party finance minister Ruth Richardson calling for a radical cut to spending.